Morning Wire Why Trump - Harris Polls Might be Misleading | 9.1.24
Sep 1, 2024
Brent Buchanan, founder and president of Signal Polling Group, analyzes the intricate landscape of the upcoming elections. He discusses how Robert Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Donald Trump could sway undecided voters. Buchanan sheds light on the electoral dynamics in key states like North Carolina and Georgia, highlighting polling inaccuracies. He examines Kamala Harris's rising numbers, contrasting them with Trump's legal challenges and their potential impact on voter sentiment. The conversation uncovers essential strategies in the battle for 270 electoral votes.
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Overlooked Polling Data
- News outlets overlook the comparison between Harris's performance against Trump and how Biden/Clinton performed against him.
- Harris is not polling as well as Biden or Clinton were at this point in their respective campaigns.
August Polling Trend
- August is historically a bad polling month for Republicans.
- Republicans tend to perform better closer to Election Day than in August polls.
Biden's Narrow 2020 Win
- Biden's 2020 victory was very narrow, winning only four states by a combined 70,000 votes.
- A small lead for Harris might not be enough to win based on these thin margins.