The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series A Break for Ukraine || Peter Zeihan
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Oct 11, 2025 The discussion highlights a potential shift in U.S. policy towards Ukraine, focusing on providing precision targeting intelligence for strikes inside Russia. It explores past U.S. concerns over energy prices and Biden's decision to limit Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The conversation moves to Trump's evolving stance toward Ukraine, his foreign policy choices, and the significant impact of recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil capacity. The episode concludes with insights on how U.S. support could drastically alter the battlefield dynamics.
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Energy Prices Drive U.S. Policy Caution
- U.S. administrations historically avoid actions that raise energy prices because energy demand is politically inelastic.
- The shale boom reduced U.S. sensitivity to energy shocks but the political reflex remains.
Shale Changes The Energy Calculus
- Biden blocked Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy fearing global price spikes.
- Zeihan argues shale changed the economics so that restriction was likely unnecessary.
Personnel Shaped Trump's Ukraine View
- Zeihan recounts Trump-era personnel changes that gutted traditional foreign-policy advisers and intelligence expertise.
- He names Tulsi Gabbard and Steve Whitcoff as key actors shaping what the president hears.