Africa Daily How are African countries viewing Assad’s fall?
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Dec 19, 2024 Beverley Ochieng, a senior analyst with Control Risks specializing in the Wagner Group, discusses the global repercussions of Bashar al-Assad's regime collapse. She highlights how African countries, reliant on Russian paramilitary support, may face instability and the return of militants. The conversation dives into the shifting diplomatic ties, with Tunisia and Algeria navigating their relationships with Syria, and emphasizes the broader security concerns for nations like Egypt in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
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Global Implications of Assad's Fall
- Assad's fall has global implications, especially for West African countries reliant on the Wagner Group.
- Wagner's operations, supply chains, and training could be disrupted, impacting regional stability.
Syria: Wagner's Logistical Hub
- Syria served as a crucial logistical hub for Wagner's operations between Russia and African countries.
- The loss of this base makes supplying and training Wagner forces in Africa logistically challenging.
Russia's Plausible Deniability in Syria
- Russia used Syria to maintain plausible deniability for Wagner's activities.
- This arrangement allowed Russia to supply the group while officially being present in Syria for other reasons.