We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network TIP286: Mastermind Discussion 1Q 2020 (Business Podcast)
Mar 8, 2020
Tobias Carlisle, a seasoned fund manager and author known for his value investing prowess, shares insights on market dynamics for 2020. The discussion dives into the intrinsic value of ExxonMobil and Etsy, exploring ExxonMobil's potential for significant returns and sustainable dividends. Carlisle also analyzes Bitcoin, forecasting its rise amid economic uncertainty. With debates on dividends in the oil sector and caution regarding Etsy’s investment landscape, the conversation emphasizes strategic thinking in fluctuating markets.
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Etsy Short Thesis
- Tobias Carlisle shared his short thesis on Etsy, highlighting its high valuation and growing competition.
- He noted user complaints about fees and algorithm changes, along with the emergence of Amazon Handmade.
Amazon Handmade Competition
- Preston Pysh inquired about the growth of Amazon Handmade, Etsy's competitor.
- Carlisle admitted difficulty finding data but highlighted Amazon's lower fees and broader reach.
Etsy's Earnings Surprise
- Stig Brodersen noted Etsy's recent strong earnings, causing a stock surge despite market volatility.
- This made Carlisle reconsider the short position, emphasizing the risk of shorting a surging stock.
