Joining the conversation are Anna Gross, a political correspondent for the Financial Times, and Lauren Fedor, deputy Washington bureau chief. They delve into Rachel Reeves' ambitious fiscal rule changes aimed at boosting UK infrastructure spending as market reactions loom large. The discussion shifts to Sir Keir Starmer's precarious position amid reparations debates in Samoa and Donald Trump’s election interference allegations against Labour. Expect insightful commentary on the intersections of UK policy and US politics in a rapidly changing landscape.
Rachel Reeves' revised fiscal rules aim to increase infrastructure funding, but market concerns about higher borrowing costs persist.
Keir Starmer's diplomatic efforts at the Commonwealth summit struggle against allegations of UK election interference and reparations debates.
Deep dives
Changes to Fiscal Rules and Borrowing Capacity
The Chancellor announced changes to the UK's fiscal rules aimed at redefining government debt measures, which would permit increased borrowing capacity for infrastructure projects. This move is seen as necessary to improve the UK's lagging investment in capital compared to other countries, potentially unlocking economic growth and enhancing public services. However, the reaction from the markets indicates concern, with predictions suggesting this could lead to increased borrowing costs, which may ultimately burden homeowners with higher mortgage rates. The earlier experience following Liz Truss's mini budget exacerbated these anxieties, making the Chancellor's proactive communication about her budget intentions particularly significant.
Impact of Increased Infrastructure Spending
Investing more in infrastructure is expected to yield benefits like improved public services and economic outcomes. The Chancellor's strategy is designed to address historical deficits in capital investment that have hindered the UK's economic performance. However, there’s a recognized risk that while enhancing capital spending could spur growth, it might also lead to higher interest rates across the economy. This dual impact highlights the complexity of fiscal policy, where the need for immediate infrastructure investments must be balanced against the long-term cost of increased debt.
Challenges in the Commonwealth Summit
Prime Minister Starmer faced a challenging backdrop at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa, where he attempted to address pressing issues including allegations of UK election interference. The potential for discussions on reparations overshadowed the summit, complicating Starmer's diplomatic positioning as he strives to present the UK as a reformed member of the Commonwealth rather than a colonial legacy. The absence of key leaders like Modi and Ramaphosa further underscored the shifting dynamics in global alliances, questioning the UK's influence and relevance. Starmer's positioning, while seeking to distance from colonial associations, risks backlash given the emerging communications from Commonwealth leaders pushing for financial reparations.
Labour's Domestic Tax Strategy and Public Perception
The Labour Party's decision to freeze income tax thresholds was critiqued as a stealth tax increase, with the potential for significant impacts on working families, a concern that may not resonate strongly with the public. This choice could lead to a gradual shift of middle earners into higher tax brackets due to fiscal drag, which might cause frustration when individuals perceive themselves as being unfairly categorized as high earners. The government’s messaging around such tax policies is crucial, as it balances the narrative of being responsive to public needs whilst navigating complex budgetary realities. Labour's challenge lies in convincing the electorate that these measures are necessary for long-term economic health, despite the immediate fiscal burden.
Rachel Reeves has rewritten her fiscal rules on the eve of her seismic first Budget next week. She says her new borrowing rule will help get Britain building, but how will it go down with voters – and the markets? Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is in Samoa, where a debate about reparations for slavery has threatened to overshadow the Commonwealth summit. Plus, the PM has had to grapple with Donald Trump’s allegations of illegal election interference by Labour. Host Lucy Fisher is joined by Political Fix regular Stephen Bush and FT political correspondent Anna Gross, along with the FT’s deputy Washington bureau chief Lauren Fedor.
Will Labour’s budget boost growth? Ask the FT’s economics editor Sam Fleming and colleagues at a Political Fix live subscriber webinar, hosted by Lucy Fisher, on Nov 1 at 1300 GMT. Register for your free pass at ft.com/ukgrowth
Sign up here for 30 free days of Stephen Bush's Inside Politics newsletter, winner of the World Association of News Publishers 2023 ‘Best Newsletter’ award.
Presented by Lucy Fisher. Produced by Clare Williamson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Audio mix and original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.