FiveThirtyEight Politics
Vance Performed Well In VP Debate. Will It Matter?
Oct 2, 2024
The hosts dive into the recent vice-presidential debate, highlighting the candidates' friendly banter and strategic moves. They dissect J.D. Vance's calm demeanor compared to his opponent's nervousness, revealing his shift to centrist views on critical issues like immigration. National security and climate change also take center stage, prompting discussions on their significance for voters. Lastly, the crew shares skepticism about the actual impact of debates on election results while keeping things light with a nod to the upcoming MLB Wild Card Series.
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Quick takeaways
- JD Vance's performance in the debate showcased his pivot toward a more moderate stance on contentious issues like abortion, potentially appealing to undecided voters.
- Despite Vance's stronger showing and improved ratings, the historical trend suggests that vice presidential debates usually have minimal long-term impact on election outcomes.
Deep dives
Debate Overview and Initial Reactions
The recent vice presidential debate featured cordial exchanges, with nominees discussing a range of topics such as foreign policy, immigration, and domestic issues. Participants initially expressed mixed reactions; Democrats were frustrated while Republicans felt more optimistic about their candidate's performance. JD Vance appeared to have a stronger showing compared to Tim Walz, who exhibited nervousness and delivered muddled answers at times, which affected his overall effectiveness. Audience sentiment indicated a potential advantage for Vance, who engaged with policy issues while trying to appeal to undecided voters.
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