Eric Min, "Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict" (Cornell UP, 2025)
Apr 7, 2025
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Dr. Eric Min, an assistant professor at UCLA, dives deep into the world of wartime negotiations, challenging the notion that they simply end conflicts. He introduces the concepts of sincere versus insincere negotiations, revealing how some talks can escalate rather than cease fighting. Using historical case studies, he illustrates the impact of external pressures and battlefield dynamics on diplomatic efforts. Min’s research shows that understanding these nuances can reshape the way we view international conflicts and the role of negotiation in war.
Negotiations are categorized as sincere or insincere, where intention plays a crucial role in determining outcomes and implications.
External pressures and battlefield conditions crucially shape negotiation behaviors, impacting the likelihood of sincere versus insincere diplomatic engagements during conflicts.
Deep dives
The Role of Negotiation in War
Negotiations during wartime serve a complex strategic function that goes beyond merely striving for peace. Historical analysis shows that about two-thirds of interstate wars conclude through negotiated settlements, underscoring the critical role of diplomacy even amidst conflict. This essential dynamic demands a closer examination of how and why states engage in negotiations during warfare. The author's research reveals a gap in existing literature, which often diminishes the significance of diplomacy once conflict ensues, arguing instead that negotiations heavily influence the ongoing dynamics of war.
Sincere vs. Insincere Negotiations
Negotiations can be categorized as either sincere or insincere, with significant implications for their outcomes. Sincere negotiations are genuine attempts by conflicting parties to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, whereas insincere negotiations may aim to extract non-settlement benefits, such as deflecting blame or gaining tactical advantages. The book emphasizes that the intention behind negotiations, rather than their outcomes, distinguishes these two types. A comprehensive understanding of these distinctions is crucial for analyzing how negotiations occur during wartime and the potential consequences they carry.
Factors Influencing Negotiation Dynamics
The choices made by belligerents regarding negotiation types are shaped by battlefield dynamics and external pressures. Generally, states engage in negotiations very infrequently during war due to the risks associated with signaling weakness. However, when one party clearly gains momentum in combat, they are more likely to initiate sincere negotiations. Additionally, external pressures for peace from third parties can significantly impact these decisions, providing political cover and potentially leading to frequently insincere engagements when negotiations are initiated under duress.
Comparison with Established Theories
This research challenges traditional theories of negotiation, such as ripeness theory, which suggest that negotiations occur during mutually hurting stalemates. The author argues that active conflict momentum can also lead to productive negotiations, contradicting the notion that only stagnation prompts dialogue. The study further critiques ripeness theory's lack of emphasis on insincerity in negotiations, asserting that understanding insincere tactics is vital for grasping the full scope of diplomatic behavior during conflicts. This nuanced perspective adds depth to existing frameworks of international relations, emphasizing the strategic use of negotiation as a means of warfare.
Insights from Case Studies
The book incorporates various historical case studies to illustrate the practical application of the negotiation theory discussed. The first Arab-Israeli war is highlighted as a prime example of how negotiations can be exploited to benefit military strategies rather than promote peace. The author reveals that during the conflict, the United Nations' mediation efforts often allowed both sides to regroup and strengthen their military positions instead of leading to meaningful resolutions. This case study demonstrates the real-world implications of insincere negotiations and reinforces the argument that third-party intervention can inadvertently exacerbate conflicts rather than resolve them.
Of all interstate conflicts across the last two centuries, two-thirds have ended through negotiated agreement. Wartime diplomacy is thus commonly seen as a costless and mechanical process solely designed to end fighting. But as Dr. Eric Min argues in Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict (Cornell University Press, 2025), that wartime negotiations are not just peacemaking tools. They are in fact a highly strategic activity that can also help states manage, fight, and potentially win wars.
To demonstrate that wartime talk does more than simply end hostilities, Dr. Min distinguishes between two kinds of negotiations: sincere and insincere. Whereas sincere negotiations are good faith honest attempts to reach peace, insincere negotiations exploit diplomacy for some other purpose, such as currying gaining political support or remobilizing forces. Two factors determine whether and how belligerents will negotiate: the amount of pressure that outside parties can place on belligerents them to engage in diplomacy, and information obtained from fighting on the battlefield.
Combining statistical and computational text analyses with qualitative case studies ranging from the War of the Roman Republic to the Korean War, Dr. Min shows that negotiations are more likely to occur with strong external pressures. A combination of such pressures and indeterminate battlefield activity, however, will most likely leads to insincere negotiations that may stoke fighting rather than end it. By revealing that diplomacy can sometimes be counterproductive to peace, Words of War compels us to rethink the assumption that it "cannot hurt" to promote diplomacy during war.
This interview was conducted by Dr. Miranda Melcher whose new book focuses on post-conflict military integration, understanding treaty negotiation and implementation in civil war contexts, with qualitative analysis of the Angolan and Mozambican civil wars. You can find Miranda’s episodes on New Books with Miranda Melcher, wherever you get your podcasts.
