The Compound and Friends

Stocks After a Rate Cut With Nick Colas, the End of Quarterly Earnings Reports, Strategy Denied S&P Inclusion

29 snips
Sep 16, 2025
Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research and author of their morning briefing newsletter, dives into intriguing market topics. He analyzes potential interest rate cuts and their varying impacts on sectors like home builders. Colas compares modern tech giants like NVIDIA and Meta to historical benchmarks, discussing the importance of evolving business models. A fascinating debate on shifting to semi-annual earnings reporting highlights transparency challenges. They also touch on the intersecting worlds of aging finance and crypto dynamics, considering index inclusion complexities.
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INSIGHT

Fed Cuts Mostly Come In Small Increments

  • Fed historically prefers 25bp cuts; larger 50bp cuts usually signal recessions.
  • Expectation of a 25bp cut reduces chances of a market-shocking 50bp move.
INSIGHT

Unusual Upward Earnings Momentum

  • Earnings estimates have been rising unusually through earnings season instead of falling.
  • That positive earnings momentum can offset Fed-related worries for stock prices.
INSIGHT

Modern Tech Beats 1990s Counterparts

  • NVIDIA's current profitability and asset efficiency far exceed Intel's 1999 metrics.
  • Superior margins and ROE justify materially higher valuations for modern tech leaders.
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