(Nuclear) Deterrence as a Game Theoretic concept | with Frank Zagare
Nov 20, 2023
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Game Theory podcast features Frank Zagare, expert on deterrence and game theory. They discuss the shortcomings of classical deterrence modeling, introduce perfect deterrence theory, and explore its distinctions. They examine the fragility of bilateral strategic relationships, the breakdown of deterrence, and offer insights into the war in Ukraine.
Classical deterrence theory, based on the game of chicken, is inadequate for modeling deterrence dynamics.
Perfect deterrence theory introduces a new perspective, emphasizing rationality and variable threat credibility.
Deep dives
The Concept of Deterrence in Game Theory
Deterrence is a universal phenomenon that is central to strategic interactions in various settings, including great power politics, family, workplace, marketplace, and domestic politics. The convergence of deterrence and game theory provides insights into decision making in strategic relationships. Classical deterrence theory, pioneered by scholars like Thomas Schelling, emerged in the post-World War II era, with a focus on nuclear deterrence during the Cold War. However, the traditional game of chicken, often used to model deterrence, has limitations and fails to capture the dynamics and stability observed during the Cold War.
The Limitations of the Game of Chicken in Modeling Deterrence
Although the game of chicken is often associated with mutual deterrence, it is actually an inadequate model for deterrence. Chicken, a two-player simultaneous strategic game, fails to capture the dynamic nature of deterrence relationships. Furthermore, the game's outcomes do not align with rational decision-making in deterrence scenarios, as both cooperative and conflict outcomes are inconsistent. Scholar Thomas Schelling proposed the rationality of irrationality as a solution, which assumes that players can be both rational and irrational simultaneously. However, this logical contradiction renders such models ineffective in providing meaningful insights.
Perfect Deterrence Theory: A New Approach
Perfect deterrence theory, developed by Frank Sagari, introduces a new perspective on deterrence. It emphasizes the consistent application of rationality, not assuming players' irrationality. In this theory, threat credibility becomes a variable rather than a constant, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of deterrence dynamics. Perfect deterrence theory challenges traditional notions by presenting multiple equilibria that coexist, reflecting the precarious nature of bilateral strategic relationships. It also highlights the fragility of peace and cautions against the dissemination of nuclear weapons. Examining recent conflicts like the war in Ukraine, the theory reveals that deterrence can both work and break down, especially in extended deterrence relationships.
In this episode we are talking to Frank Zagare about deterrence. The term gained popularity in particular during the cold war to describe the role of nuclear weapons in Soviet-American relations and, in light of recent events, has surfaced again. Together with Frank we look at the concept from a Game Theoretic perspective and discuss the shortcomings of the classical way of modeling deterrence. Frank then walks us through his alternative theory, perfect deterrence theory. He explains to us how it differs from classical way of modeling and which insights it offers on the war in Ukraine.
Frank Zagare is UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University at Buffalo and author of several books like ‘The Dynamics of Deterrence’ and ‘Game Theory, Diplomatic History and Security Studies’ among others.
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