In Moscow's Shadows 128: Politics, War and Lunacy - a look forward to 2024
Dec 29, 2023
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This podcast episode looks ahead to the upcoming year, covering topics such as the presidential elections in Russia, the ongoing war in the Black Sea, the shrinking middle class, and Russia's relationship with the Mongols.
55:28
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Quick takeaways
The exclusion of candidates from the presidential nominations process raises concerns about the opposition's ability to create a united front.
The sinking of a Russian landing ship by a Ukrainian missile attack highlights Ukraine's capacity to strike at Russian naval forces and potential vulnerability of Crimea.
Deep dives
Forthcoming Presidential Elections: Candidates Excluded from the Field
The shape of the field for the forthcoming presidential elections in Russia is becoming clear, as the nominations process has excluded candidates Yekaterina Dünsova and Igor Gierken. Dünsova, a liberal journalist, was rejected due to alleged mistakes in her nomination documents, while Gierken, a hawkish figure, was prevented from being nominated due to the absence of an official notary during the process. The exclusion of these candidates raises questions about the opposition forces' ability to unite and create a common front. Additionally, the remaining candidates include a right-leaning liberal, a representative of the Liberal Democratic Party, and a Communist candidate.
War in Ukraine: Naval Clash in the Black Sea
Amid a slowdown in the war due to the physical environment, fighting continues in Avdiivka and Russian claims of taking over a small town. However, the sinking of the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk by a Ukrainian missile attack highlights Ukraine's capacity to strike at Russian naval forces. This attack serves to demonstrate that the Black Sea fleet is no longer as dominant as before and that Crimea could be vulnerable to being cut off and besieged. The war in Ukraine serves to prepare Russia for future challenges, both militarily and politically.
Extreme Rhetoric: A View of Russia's Future
Sergei Karaganov, a prominent figure in Russian strategic thinking, highlights a growing extremist narrative within Russian elites. He asserts that Europe is experiencing a moral and political defeat, as evidenced by the shrinking middle class, growing inequality, and the disintegration of the European Union. Karaganov suggests that Russia represents a superior European culture and aims to purify elites, revive the economy and military strength, and assert Russia's destined role as a Eurasian power. This extreme rhetoric reflects a competitive escalation of narratives within Russian political circles.
Challenges Ahead: Uncertain Strategies and Legitimacy
Looking ahead to 2024, uncertainty remains on several fronts, including the battlefield in Ukraine, the political strategies of the Kremlin, and the continued search for a narrative that resonates with the Russian people. The outcome of the forthcoming elections is expected to be predetermined, but questions remain about the process and its impact on legitimacy. The year 2024 presents challenges for both Russian and Ukrainian authorities, as they navigate military objectives, political maneuvering, and the need to reconnect with their respective populations.
Less whimsical than the last one, the final episode of 2023 looks ahead to the coming year: the candidates for the presidential elections, the prospects for the war, and - spinning off a deeply-bizarre interview with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov - whether the Kremlin can find a convincing narrative.
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