75. Bank of England Economist: Interest rates must be cut
Jul 14, 2024
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Economist Swati Dhingra discusses the factors influencing the Bank of England's interest rate decisions, the complexities of monetary policy, and the implications for the economy. Topics include deflationary pressure, AI impact on rates, UK economic landscape post government announcement, trade and investment post-Brexit, and proposals for regional differential interest rates.
Dr. Dhingra advocates for interest rate cuts to boost economy despite being in the minority.
Committee emphasizes the impact of interest rate decisions on mortgages and living standards.
Deep dives
Dr. Swati Dhingra's Role in the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee
Dr. Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, plays a crucial role in determining the UK's interest rate. She advocates for interest rate cuts due to her assessment of soft demand in the economy, despite being in the minority on the committee. Dr. Dhingra emphasizes the need to normalize interest rates gradually to improve living standards.
Challenges Faced by Monetary Policy Models and Decision-Making
The conversation delves into the limitations of monetary policy models in forecasting large shocks and inflationary pressures accurately. Dr. Dhingra highlights the importance of using real-time data and judgment calls alongside models. The discussion also reflects on the difficulties faced by economists in applying common sense to economic forecasting.
Impact of Monetary Policy on Mortgages and Economic Stability
Consideration of interest rate decisions and their impact on areas like mortgages showcases the committee's awareness of the broader economic implications. Dr. Dhingra feels the weight of decisions on people's mortgages and living standards, highlighting the concentrated impact on individuals. The committee's role in ensuring economic stability amidst challenges like inflation and varying growth forecasts is emphasized.
The Need for Strategic Trade Policy and Economic Growth Initiatives
Discussions on trade policies post-Brexit and initiatives for economic growth underscore the importance of focusing on tradable services and investment. Dr. Dhingra emphasizes the significance of developing services sectors and reevaluating trade agreements to enhance competitiveness. The conversation also touches on the impact of policy decisions on equality and productivity within the UK.
Economist and external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra talks to Robert and Steph about why she thinks the time has come to lower Bank Rate, the interest rate set by the Bank of England that determines the cost of borrowing and savings rates for all of us.
She discusses the heavy responsibility of deciding how much money the British public have in their pockets and discusses where interest rates are likely to settle for the next ten years or longer. The Rest Is Money also examines with her why the Bank of England was too slow to raise interest rates when the inflationary surge began and whether monetary policy can be adapted to meet the different needs of the UK’s regions