The podcast explores the concept of historical cycles and the patterns and predictions for America's next crisis. It discusses the impact of generational turnover on society and explores the rise of populism. The importance of historical perspective in breaking free from the cycle of history is emphasized.
American society experiences recurring cycles of history, with our current historical cycle being in the midst of a great crisis.
Generational cycles shape the rhythm of history, imprinting generational psychology and influencing each generation's contributions to the historical cycle.
Deep dives
The Rhythm of History: Generational Cycles
Howe and Strauss argue that American society experiences recurring cycles of history, each spanning roughly 80 to 100 years. These cycles consist of four turnings: the high, the awakening, the unraveling, and the crisis. They suggest that our current historical cycle began after World War II, with periods of confidence, spiritual upheaval, institutional decay, and now a historical crisis. They predict that this crisis, which we are currently in, will bring about cataclysmic disruptions that will transform society.
Generational Impact on History
Howe and Strauss propose that human generations play a crucial role in shaping the rhythm of history. Different generations respond differently to significant historical events based on their life stage. These responses imprint generational psychology, which in turn shapes their contributions to the historical cycle. For example, surviving World War II veterans developed a sense of heroism, which transformed into a hubris as they reached midlife and elderhood. Howe and Strauss argue that generational cycles explain why history tends to repeat itself and why each generation must relearn historical lessons.
Predictions and Current Crisis
Howe and Strauss predicted that America's next historical crisis would occur around 2020, marked by revolution, civil war, or economic collapse. While some of their specific predictions did not come true, they accurately anticipated the rise of American populism and the potential for a deep cultural cataclysm. They emphasize the importance of historical knowledge to avoid repeating mistakes, as the forgetting of historical lessons can lead to the erosion of liberal values, tribalism, and the suppression of free thought.