The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#58 Haendel St. Juste | 5 Takeaways From Q3 '25 Apartment REIT Calls
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Nov 6, 2025 Haendel St. Juste, a seasoned REIT analyst from Mizuho Americas, dives into the intricate dynamics of the apartment REIT market. He discusses the cautious rental landscape, highlighting a gap between renewal and new-lease rents. The conversation also covers the impact of supply trends on 2026 forecasts and the ongoing NAV discounts prompting REIT buybacks. St. Juste evaluates the likelihood of more firms going private amidst these valuation challenges, revealing both short-term hesitancy and long-term investment potentials in the evolving market.
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Renter Health Strong But Buyers Hesitant
- REITs report renter financial health remains strong with low rent-to-income ratios and improving delinquencies.
- However, prospective renters are increasingly cautious, delaying lease commitments amid economic uncertainty.
Leasing Season Shifted Earlier Than Normal
- Leasing season ended earlier than usual in some markets, producing softer move-in rents and more concessions.
- Some REITs say the season simply shifted earlier, so timing will reveal whether demand truly weakened.
Coast vs Sunbelt: Nuanced Market Winners
- Coastal and Sunbelt performance is diverging by market rather than region, with San Francisco and New York leading recovery.
- Other coastal markets like D.C., Boston, and Seattle show notable softness tied to local factors.