Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, believes the 10-year treasury is a 'screaming buy.' Other topics discussed include the US avoiding recession, China's current trouble, and the balanced state of the US. Also explored are the impact of supply chain shifts, adapting to high interest rates and low default rates in the high yield market, and the potential effects of interest rates on companies and economic growth.
Companies have prepared for rate increases and reduced the risk of defaults in the high-yield market by extending maturities and improving balance sheets.
Despite slowing job growth, the Federal Reserve's aim to maintain 2% inflation could prolong the economic cycle and avoid a recession.
Deep dives
Impact of Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates
The podcast discusses the potential consequences of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. It emphasizes that companies have already prepared for rate increases by extending maturities and improving their balance sheets, reducing the risk of defaults in the high-yield market. The overall economic cycle is expected to continue, as the current interest rate environment is not seen as a hindrance to corporate borrowing or generating free cash flow. Market experts remain constructive on the equity market, predicting a strong finish to the year with moderate returns.
Concerns about the macro outlook
The podcast delves into concerns about the macro outlook, specifically focusing on job growth and inflation. While job growth is slowing, the Federal Reserve is still aiming to maintain its objective of 2% inflation, which could prolong the cycle and avoid a recession. However, there are worries about potential downward revisions and the impact of strikes, such as the one involving the United Auto Workers, on job demand. The overall sentiment is cautious, with market participants closely monitoring data and considering the implications for future monetary policy decisions.
Geopolitical risks and China's role
Geopolitical risks, particularly involving China, are discussed in the podcast. China is facing challenges, both economically and politically, with expectations that it may resort to selling its brands globally to stimulate growth. The potential competition from China and its impact on US companies is mentioned, along with concerns about China flexing its political and military muscle as its economy weakens. The focus shifts to US brands and how they can compete in the domestic market given regulatory hurdles and China's desire to expand its presence.
Outlook for risky debt and corporate borrowing
The podcast addresses the outlook for risky debt and corporate borrowing. It highlights the low default rates in the high-yield market, with many companies having already extended maturities and improved their balance sheets. The expectation is that companies will have sufficient liquidity to refinance their debt, mitigating the risk of default. Given the current interest rate environment, higher rates are not seen as a significant threat to corporates, allowing them to generate free cash flow and sustain dividend growth. The focus is on access to money rather than the cost of money for corporations.
Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says the 10-year treasury is a 'screaming buy.' Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, still sees the US avoiding recession. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says China is clearly experiencing trouble. Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's no recession in sight because everything in the US is pretty well balanced. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance