In a stunning turn of events, rebel forces swiftly reclaimed Aleppo from President Assad's troops, leaving many wondering about the regime's next move. The podcast delves into the impact of chemical warfare in urban combat, the emotional family reunions amidst chaos, and the rising influence of rebel groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It also explores the complex dynamics that have shaped the Syrian civil war, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and the significant challenges Assad now faces in re-establishing control.
The rapid capture of Aleppo by rebel forces indicates critical vulnerabilities in Assad's military strength heavily reliant on foreign support.
The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham highlights the complex dynamics of Syrian civil society where jihadist factions both attract and oppress civilians.
Deep dives
Surprise Offensive in Aleppo
A significant and unexpected military offensive by armed opposition groups recently led to their control of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city. This marked the first time in eight years that rebel forces entered the city, which had previously been under Assad's regime since a major takeover in 2016. The ease with which the rebels conquered Aleppo surprised both them and observers, as the city fell within a day, indicating a serious weakness in Assad's forces. This development has shifted the perception of the Syrian civil war, which many had considered largely over in favor of Assad since he regained most of the territory over the past few years.
Weakness of Assad's Regime
The recent rebel offensive underscores the inherent vulnerabilities within President Assad's regime, which had been regarded as victorious for several years. Despite previously regaining control over 70% of Syria, the rapid fall of Aleppo highlighted that the Syrian military's strength relies heavily on foreign military support, specifically from Russian and Iranian-backed groups. The distraction of Hezbollah due to tensions with Israel played a crucial role in providing the rebels with an opportune moment to launch their attack. This situation suggests that the stability of Assad's rule is precarious, contingent upon external backing rather than internal strength.
Role of Jihadist Groups
Among the victorious rebels, the coalition known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as a powerful force, under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Jalani. Initially affiliated with al-Qaeda, Jalani distanced HTS from this reputation to gain a more favorable public image, positioning himself as a pragmatic leader who respects human rights in interviews. However, despite some attempts to establish a governance structure, HTS remains unpopular among many Syrians due to its oppressive policies and restrictions on freedoms. The group's rise illustrates the complex dynamics of the conflict, where jihadist factions can both look modern and yet restrict civil liberties, while still attracting civilians seeking safety from the devastation of the Assad regime.
In just 24 hours President Assad’s forces just “melted away” in Syria’s second biggest city. How did the rebels seize control and what might Assad do in response?