Learning Bayesian Statistics

#128 Building a Winning Data Team in Football, with Matt Penn

Mar 19, 2025
Guest
Matt Penn
Matt Penn, a football data scientist for Como 1907, discusses the critical role of Bayesian statistics in player recruitment and team decisions. He highlights how analysts can effectively communicate insights to coaching staff, fostering better collaboration. The conversation dives into the biases present in traditional football statistics and the impact of tracking data on understanding player movements. Matt shares his journey into sports analytics and emphasizes the importance of curiosity and practical experience for aspiring analysts in this competitive landscape.
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ANECDOTE

Winter Transfer Window

  • The winter transfer window is more useful for lower-ranking clubs, offering opportunities to acquire players at cheaper prices.
  • For example, clubs can target players nearing the end of their contracts or those not getting enough playtime at their current clubs.
INSIGHT

Bias in Pass Completion Rates

  • Traditional football statistics like pass completion rates can be biased, failing to account for pass difficulty.
  • Statistical modeling, such as expected passes, helps provide an unbiased player assessment.
ANECDOTE

Exploiting Goalkeeper Weakness

  • Oxford City used an expected passes model and noticed their opponent's goalkeeper underperformed on long passes.
  • They pressed the goalkeeper, forcing him out of his comfort zone and impacting the game.
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