Is Democracy and Peace Possible in Myanmar? A Conversation with Claire Smith
Apr 17, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, Claire Smith, a Senior Lecturer at the University of York, dives into Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict and the bleak prospects for peace. She unpacks the challenges posed by various opposition forces and the crucial role of international actors like China. The conversation touches on ASEAN's efforts amid internal divisions and geopolitical complexities involving major powers. Additionally, Claire highlights innovative research initiatives aimed at enhancing public awareness and understanding of Myanmar's tumultuous situation.
The fragmented opposition landscape in Myanmar poses significant challenges to achieving a unified vision for post-conflict governance amidst ongoing violence.
International engagement, particularly by China and ASEAN, plays a crucial role in addressing Myanmar's conflict, yet faces complexities due to differing political motivations.
Deep dives
Current Conflict Dynamics in Myanmar
The civil war in Myanmar, which escalated after a military coup in February 2021, continues to evolve with significant developments in opposition and regime dynamics. International attention towards Myanmar has decreased dramatically, even within Southeast Asia, where regional surveys indicate a growing apathy to the ongoing conflict, overshadowed by other global crises. In recent months, notable shifts have emerged, including the opposition gaining territory previously considered out of reach and the military regime resorting to unpopular conscription measures that have displaced millions. This ongoing violence has resulted in nearly 3.5 million internally displaced persons, reflecting the desperate conditions faced by many civilians amidst the protracted strife.
Domestic Actors and the Complexity of the Conflicts
The conflict in Myanmar features a multitude of domestic actors with varying interests, including regime supporters, ethnic armed organizations, and grassroots militias. While some ethnic groups oppose the military junta, others see potential advantages in aligning with it, leading to a fragmented opposition landscape. The National Unity Government (NUG) represents the civilian resistance but struggles to consolidate power with ethnic armed organizations due to historical distrust. The prevalent atmosphere of conflict has expanded from traditional hotspots to new, previously stable regions, complicating the national narrative and the vision of governance for Myanmar's future.
International Players and Their Roles
International involvement in Myanmar's conflict is marked by multifaceted engagement from various states including China, ASEAN members, and Russia, each with differing motivations. China seeks stability and economic interests, actively mediating local ceasefire talks while supporting various factions within the conflict. ASEAN, with its historical engagement in Myanmar, is considered a potential frontrunner for political dialogue despite facing internal divisions among member states regarding their approach to the junta. Conversely, Russia remains aligned with the regime, providing military support, raising concerns among regional actors about its influence in the growing conflict.
Challenges to Peace and Pathways Forward
Achieving a comprehensive peace in Myanmar faces numerous barriers, notably the lack of a unified vision among competing factions and the preference for military victories over negotiated settlements. The condition of the military regime appears increasingly fragile as opposition forces gain strength, yet substantial dialogue remains elusive. The necessity of a credible mediator remains paramount to facilitate discussions and promote an inclusive governance framework amidst regional pressures. Support for civil society actors, informal dialogues, and a coordinated approach to humanitarian assistance may prove essential in addressing the conflict's complexities and fostering a path toward peace.
As the civil conflict in Myanmar passes its fourth anniversary, is this ethnically complex country any closer to a peaceful resolution of its internal conflict? Do opposition forces have a singular vision for what a post-conflict Myanmar might look like, or could the country simply break apart? Join Petra Alderman as she talks to Claire Smith about the evolution of Myanmar’s ongoing conflict, the different domestic and international actors involved, potential pathways for peace, and the broader regional and geopolitical implications of intervention in Myanmar. *This episode was recorded prior to the March 2025 earthquake*
Project website (with links to conflict & peace backgrounder and poster)
*** This episode was originally recorded in early December 2024. ***
Claire Smith is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of York (UK). She works on the comparative politics of conflict management, intervention and peacebuilding in the context of political transition in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia and Myanmar. Claire’s research has appeared in leading conflict and peace journals including Conflict, Security and Development, Third World Quarterly, Global Responsibility to Protect and Peacebuilding. Her research has been funded by the ESRC, GCRF, The Asia Foundation, the ISRF and The World Peace Foundation.
Petra Alderman is a researcher, CEDAR affiliate, and a manager of the LSE Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre.
The People, Power, Politics podcast brings you the latest insights into the factors that are shaping and re-shaping our political world. It is brought to you by the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR) based at the University of Birmingham, United Kingdom. Join us to better understand the factors that promote and undermine democratic government around the world and follow us on X (Twitter) at @CEDAR_Bham
