New Books in Political Science Is Democracy and Peace Possible in Myanmar? A Conversation with Claire Smith
Apr 17, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Claire Smith, a Senior Lecturer at the University of York, dives into Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict and the bleak prospects for peace. She unpacks the challenges posed by various opposition forces and the crucial role of international actors like China. The conversation touches on ASEAN's efforts amid internal divisions and geopolitical complexities involving major powers. Additionally, Claire highlights innovative research initiatives aimed at enhancing public awareness and understanding of Myanmar's tumultuous situation.
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Shift in Myanmar Conflict Dynamics
- The opposition in Myanmar has gained unexpected ground militarily, shifting the conflict dynamics in 2024.
- Meanwhile, the junta's repeated conscription laws spur population displacement and growing civilian suffering.
Complex Domestic Conflict Actors
- Myanmar's conflict involves regime supporters, ethnic armed organizations, border militias, and grassroots militias.
- Significant distrust exists between the predominantly Bama-led National Unity Government and ethnic armed groups with different visions for the future.
Key International Players' Roles
- China engages pragmatically, supporting all sides to protect its economic and security interests.
- Russia is the main arms supplier to the junta, encouraging prolonged conflict, while ASEAN offers potential for political dialogue despite internal divisions.