FARSIGHT Pax Geriatrica w/ Mark Haas
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Oct 2, 2025 In this discussion, Professor Mark L. Haas, a political science expert at Duquesne University and author of The Geriatric Peace, explores the intriguing idea that an aging population might lead to global stability. He argues that older nations have diminished capacities and preferences for war, potentially hindering the U.S.-China power transition. Haas shares insights on how demographics shape military capabilities, economic productivity, and governance, asserting that the dynamics of aging could make conflicts less likely over time.
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Aging Lowers War Capability And Willingness
- Aging reduces both the capabilities and preferences for war through economic and demographic effects.
- This combination makes states less likely to initiate or sustain large-scale conflicts over time.
Three Mechanisms That Weaken Military Power
- Aging reduces military power by slowing growth, crowding out defense spending with elderly welfare, and shrinking the pool of potential soldiers.
- These three mechanisms combine to significantly weaken a country's ability to project force.
Productivity Drops With An Older Workforce
- Aging lowers economic productivity by shrinking the workforce and reducing the most productive 40–50 age cohort.
- Lower productivity hurts a nation's ability to innovate and produce cutting-edge military systems.
