The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Help Wanted - The US Needs More Workers || Peter Zeihan
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Dec 29, 2025 The U.S. labor market faces challenges with questionable job growth data and disruptions from government shutdowns. Demographic shifts, including retiring baby boomers, contribute to a tightening workforce. Employers experiment with AI in hiring, raising questions about the future of human labor. Anti-immigration policies exacerbate these issues, restricting the labor pool. As the available workforce shrinks, there's a pressing need for productivity gains, possibly through technology. Overall, these trends may lead to rising inflation.
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Shrinking Labor Pool Lowers Job Baseline
- U.S. monthly job gains of ~300,000 are likely no longer a realistic baseline as the labor pool is shrinking.
- Demographics and retiring baby boomers mean fewer available workers, lowering potential labor-force growth permanently.
Recent Job Data May Be Unreliable
- Changes at the Department of Labor and the government shutdown may have degraded the reliability of recent jobs data.
- Data disruptions mean reported job losses or slowdowns should be interpreted cautiously.
AI Testing Is Distorting Hiring Patterns
- Early-stage AI experimentation may be changing hiring patterns, including weaker seasonal surge hiring.
- Employers might be testing AI replacements across unexpected roles, producing unusual labor data.