Hub Podcasts Is Canada already in a recession?
Sep 17, 2025
Trevor Tombe, a Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary, discusses whether Canada is teetering on the edge of a recession, analyzing rising unemployment and recent job losses. Meanwhile, Richard Shimooka advocates for increased investment in F-35 fighter jets while weighing other military options for Canada. They dive into the implications of economic uncertainty on households and the nation’s defense strategy amidst growing tensions with China, highlighting the complexities of military procurement and economic forecasting.
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Recessions Are Hard To Call Quickly
- Recessions are hard to identify in real time because economic data arrives slowly and often conflicts.
- Trevor Tombe argues current labour and GDP signals suggest a broad, persistent slowdown that feels like a recession for many.
Labour Market Shows Unusual Weakness
- Canada's employment rate has fallen sharply since early 2023, including among prime-age workers.
- Tombe highlights that unemployment rose by roughly half a million workers and crossed the SOM rule recession threshold in Oct 2023.
Young Workers Hit Hardest
- Young people and recent students have borne a disproportionate share of job losses since 2023.
- Tombe notes under-25 employment fell about 6 percentage points and nearly half a million former students are now unemployed.