

Tyler Cowen - Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, Animal Spirits, Anarchy, & Growth
Irrational Investment
- Keynes believed most investment throughout history has been irrationally optimistic.
- He noted humans are tempted to take chances, driving investment beyond cold calculation.
Uninternalized Gains of Innovation
- Innovators often don't internalize the full social benefits they create.
- This suggests individuals are more risk-seeking than is selfishly optimal.
Market Maturity and Speculation
- Keynes argued that mature markets become more speculative.
- He cited the New York market as more speculative than London's during his time.


























It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time.
We discussed GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?, especially in the context of how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, animal spirits, prediction markets, alignment, central planning, and much more.
The topics covered in this episode are too many to summarize. Hope you enjoy!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - John Maynard Keynes
(00:17:16) - Controversy
(00:25:02) - Fredrick von Hayek
(00:47:41) - John Stuart Mill
(00:52:41) - Adam Smith
(00:58:31) - Coase, Schelling, & George
(01:08:07) - Anarchy
(01:13:16) - Cheap WMDs
(01:23:18) - Technocracy & political philosophy
(01:34:16) - AI & Scaling
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