What role should modelling play in a crisis?

Modelling and forecasting played a prominent role in the way policies were designed and decisions were made during the coronavirus pandemic. But the government’s handling of the crisis raised questions about how modelling - epidemiological and economic – was used by ministers.

So how should models be produced and used within government? How should they be communicated to the public? And how well equipped are ministers and officials to understand and interpret modelling when making their decisions?.

This panel explored the role of modelling in the Covid pandemic, the lessons that ministers should learn, and how the UK should draw on modelling in future crises.

• Ben Chu, Economics Editor for Newsnight
• Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London
• Richard Hughes, Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility
• Ruth Kelly, Chief Analyst at the National Audit Office.

The event was chaired by Dr Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government.

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We would like to thank The Forum, Imperial College London’s policy engagement initiative for kindly supporting this event.

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