Milk Road Macro Harry Dent: Demographics Run the Economy & They’re Pointing to a Massive Crash
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Nov 20, 2025 Harry Dent, an esteemed economist known for his insights on demographic trends, reveals how demographics fundamentally influence economic cycles. He discusses the mistaken optimism of a $29 trillion artificial boom and why Millennials can't replicate the Baby Boomers' impact on the economy. Dent predicts a significant market crash between 2026–2028 due to overvalued assets, warning that stimulus measures will only delay the inevitable. He concludes with fascinating insights on India’s potential to outpace China economically.
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Consumer Life Cycle Drives Macro Cycles
- Harry Dent argues the consumer life cycle (0–20, 20–46, 46+) drives inflation, growth, and investment patterns.
- Peak spending at ~46 explains long booms and predictable economic cycles independent of policy actions.
Early Call On U.S. Boom Vs. Japan
- Dent recounts predicting the U.S. boom (1980s–2007) driven by baby boomers when others feared Japan.
- He says Japan peaked in 1989 and never recovered because of low births and closed immigration.
The $29T Artificial Boom Argument
- Dent calls the post-2008 expansion an "artificial boom" funded by $29 trillion of stimulus and deficits.
- He says that sustained stimulus masked the natural demographic slowdown and inflated asset prices.