War on the Rocks The Risks of the Latest India-Pakistan Crisis
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May 7, 2025 
Sameer Lalwani, a former expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, sheds light on the escalating tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. He discusses the historical context of their conflicts and the precarious balance of nuclear strategies. The conversation delves into Pakistan's internal crises, which could influence military actions. Lalwani also examines the U.S. shifting role, moving from mediation to aligning with India, and the implications for regional stability amid potential military responses.
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Heinous Religious Targeting in Pahalgam Attack
- The April 22nd Pahalgam attack was heinous, targeting civilians and selectively executing based on religion.
- The nation united in mourning, fueling pressure for kinetic retaliatory action from India.
Modi’s Shift from Strategic Restraint
- Modi's government has reset expectations by showing India will respond with more risk to Pakistan attacks.
- Surgical strikes and publicized retaliations aim to rebuild India's reputation for decisive action.
Balakot Crisis and Nuclear Thresholds
- The 2019 Balakot crisis showed India’s willingness to cross nuclear-age limits by using airpower inside Pakistan.
- Quick de-escalation was aided by unpredictable events like the Indian pilot’s capture and return.