2024 Predictions, Career Advice, and What Went Right in 2023
Jan 3, 2024
01:22:31
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Josh Brown discusses career advice for 2024. The speakers analyze recent stock performance, predict future challenges, and reflect on the impact of the pandemic. They discuss dividend growth, market momentum, and tech predictions for 2024. They also analyze Dollar General, Snap, and Meta, and discuss the transition to a subscription business.
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Quick takeaways
The small-cap Russell 2000 index's remarkable rally in 2023 suggests a positive outlook for the small-cap sector in 2024.
JP Morgan Chase's outstanding performance in 2023, driven by its focus on quality and risk management, sets it apart from competitors and predicts high annual profits.
The surge in stock prices and breadth of the market rally indicate positive investor returns, but caution should be exercised as market conditions may not persist indefinitely.
Deep dives
Small-Cap Rally
The small-cap Russell 2000 index had a remarkable rally, outperforming other major indices, with many stocks seeing significant gains. This strong performance was unexpected, but historical patterns show that such rallies can be followed by further gains in the following year. This suggests a positive outlook for the small-cap sector in 2024.
JP Morgan's Outstanding Year
JP Morgan Chase had an outstanding year in 2023, with its market cap surpassing that of Bank of America and Citigroup combined. The bank's strong performance can be attributed to its focus on quality and risk management, setting it apart from its competitors. JP Morgan's annual profits are expected to be among the highest in the history of American banking.
Market Rally and Investor Optimism
The stock market experienced a strong momentum in the past couple of months, with the S&P 500 and other indices reaching record highs. This surge in stock prices and the breadth of the market rally bode well for investors. However, it is important for investors to be aware that such market conditions may not persist indefinitely, and some caution is advised.
Lessons for Investors
As 2023 turned out to be a year of surprises, with many predictions and forecasts proving to be inaccurate, it serves as a reminder that predicting the future is difficult, and no one has a crystal ball. The lesson for investors is to be mindful of the limitations in forecasting and to focus on the underlying fundamentals and quality of investments.
Prediction: Private Equity Comes Back
After a period of decreased activity, private equity deal activity is expected to make a comeback in 2024. With borrowing rates leveling off, private equity firms are poised to resume making deals and capitalize on opportunities in the market.
Prediction: Jerome Powell Steps Down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is predicted to step down ahead of the 2024 election. Having successfully navigated the challenge of inflation, Powell is unlikely to stick around for another potential economic downturn, making way for a new Fed chair.
On this episode of TCAF Tuesday, Josh Brown discusses career advice, and what went right in 2023. Then stick around to join Downtown Josh Brown (CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management) and Michael Batnick (Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management) for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance, and of course, 2024 predictions!
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