In this engaging discussion, Professor Gilbert Doctorow, an expert on international relations and the European Union, delves into the complex interplay of sovereignty within the EU amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly the Ukraine conflict. He highlights the nuanced strategies of Ukraine in warfare and the heavy cost of the ongoing clash. Doctorow critiques the EU's foreign policy versus member state sovereignty and speculates on Italy’s shifting stance towards Ukraine. He also examines the influence of Trump’s presidency on European politics and NATO's support for Ukraine.
The extreme measures taken by the Ukraine government, including terrorism tactics like assassination and missile attacks, reflect a desperate strategy on the battlefield.
The tension between EU collective sovereignty and individual member state autonomy raises concerns over national governments' effectiveness and their ability to disagree with centralized policies.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Desperation Tactics
The Ukraine government is resorting to extreme measures such as the assassination of a general in Moscow and missile attacks on civilian targets, indicating high levels of desperation on the battlefield. These tactics are categorized as terrorism, aimed at instilling fear rather than engaging in direct military confrontation with Russian forces. For example, a drone attack in Kazan created a significant social media spectacle despite causing minimal physical damage, showcasing the emphasis on psychological impact over actual military gains. Ultimately, these actions are perceived as futile and are unlikely to change the war's trajectory while the Ukrainian forces continue to suffer significant losses.
Tensions within the EU's Sovereignty Framework
Discussions have arisen regarding the tension between the collective sovereignty of the European Union and the individual sovereignty of its member states, specifically in light of recent geopolitical events. Since the early 1990s, countries within the EU have ceded various sovereign powers to centralized institutions in Brussels, often in pursuit of a unified legislative framework. However, this shift has led to states echoing similar delusional narratives regarding the war in Ukraine, raising concerns about the effectiveness and autonomy of national governments. For instance, if Italy's government disagrees with EU policies on Arming Ukraine, it lacks a straightforward mechanism to assert its stance, highlighting a disconnect in the balance of power within the union.
Potential Political Shifts under Trump
The upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump could lead to substantial changes in the dynamics between the EU and the U.S., especially regarding foreign policy and military support for Ukraine. Observers speculate that Trump may influence member states' positions, notably those like Viktor Orban's Hungary, which could challenge the current EU leadership under Ursula von der Leyen. Trump's policies might lead to a reevaluation of funding and military aid that has been critical for Ukraine, raising questions about the stability of political alliances in Europe. The speculation surrounding Trump's dealings may also spark discussions on the legitimacy of senior officials in Ukraine and their relationships with U.S. legislators, suggesting a more transactional approach to international politics.