BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

885: BiggerNews: America's Path to "Renter Nation" as Prices Rise, Rates Stay Put w/J Scott

Feb 2, 2024

J Scott, investing legend and author of too many real estate books to name, discusses housing crashes, economic predictions, mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, and the silent threat to the US economy. He shares his thoughts on whether another housing crash is coming, the possibility of America becoming a "renter nation," and the biggest economic risk to businesses and employees.

44:13

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Episode guests

J Scott

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Quick takeaways

Housing crashes are rare, with only one major crash in 120 years, suggesting a repeat of the 2008 crisis is unlikely in the near future.

The high demand and low supply in the current housing market indicate that prices are likely to remain stable or even continue to rise.

Deep dives

Housing crash and economic recession

The potential for a housing crash is a hot topic, with many people concerned about a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis. However, historical data shows that housing crashes are rare and the 2008 recession was an exception. Over the past 120 years, there has only been one housing crash in the United States. The current market conditions, including high demand and low supply, suggest that a housing crash is unlikely in the near future. Additionally, the disconnect between public sentiment and economic data creates a complex landscape, where people may feel pessimistic about the economy even when it is performing well.

Introduction

2min

Housing Crash and the Economy

5min

Analyzing the Disconnect Between Economic Data and Public Perception in Real Estate

4min

Perspectives on the Contradiction between Economic Measures and Public Sentiment

17min

Federal Reserve and Election Year

6min

Bank Term Funding Program and its Impact on the Financial System

9min

Expressing Gratitude, Book Collaboration, and Advertisement for Investor-Friendly Agents

3min

The US economy has survived the past few years surprisingly well. But there's one huge threat on the horizon no one is watching. With layoffs and bankruptcies already starting to tick up, a new wave of misfortune could hit consumers EVEN as inflation cools, interest rates begin to drop, and asset prices hit an all-time high. What's coming for us that only the most economically inclined know about? We're about to break it down on this BiggerNews.

J Scott, investing legend and author of too many real estate books to name, is back on the show to talk about housing crashes, economic predictions, mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, and the silent threat to the US economy that nobody is thinking about. J knows the game better than most and is the furthest thing from a bubble boy or permabull. He’s got his finger on the economic pulse and uses the most up-to-date economic data to form his opinions.

On today's episode, J shares whether or not he believes another housing crash is coming, how America could become a "renter nation" over the next decade, whether or not home prices will stay high once rates drop, how low mortgage rates could go in 2024, and the biggest economic risk to businesses, employees, and anyone operating in the US economy.

In This Episode We Cover:

The likelihood of another housing crash, especially if America falls into a recession

A silent risk to the US economy that could hit everyday Americans hard

Why Americans are pessimistic about the economy but spending more than ever

The economic "musical chairs" which must come to a stop sometime soon

Why home prices could continue to rise as mortgage rates begin to fall

Mortgage rate predictions and J's forecast for how low they'll go in 2024

The big bank bailout program that could be coming to a close

And So Much More!

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