80,000 Hours Podcast
#134 Classic episode – Ian Morris on what big-picture history teaches us
Episode guests
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Strong governments are crucial for reducing societal violence by dissuading individuals from violent behavior through authority and punishment.
- Analyzing long-term historical patterns can provide valuable insights into the potential trajectory of human societies moving forward.
- The dominant energy source in a society deeply influences its cultural and ethical frameworks, shaping priorities and moral considerations.
- Geographic advantages significantly affect the development of civilizations, creating long-term structural inequalities between societies.
- Contingency plays a pivotal role in historical changes, as individual events and decisions can dramatically alter societal trajectories.
- Climatic conditions have profound impacts on civilizations, with societies that adapt quickly to changes being more likely to thrive.
Deep dives
Government's Role in Reducing Violence
The podcast discusses the idea that strong governments play a significant role in reducing rates of violence within societies. By providing individuals with incentives to refrain from violent actions, governments create order where chaos could reign. The speaker illustrates this with a blunt analogy: governments effectively 'scare their people straight,' dissuading them from violent behaviors through the threat of punishment. This framework implies that rather than individuals being inherently peaceful, it is the presence of government authority that helps maintain societal stability.
Lessons from Macroeconomic History
The conversation explores the patterns in human development over thousands of years, suggesting that historical trajectories offer insights into the future. The speaker, a historian, emphasizes that analyzing the macro trends of human civilization can reveal much about what to expect moving forward. By looking at the last 10,000 to 100,000 years of history, the speaker argues that it is possible to identify certain repeated cycles and influences that shape societal outcomes. This perspective nurtures the idea that history can inform us of potential future directions for humanity.
Energy Sources and Moral Values
One key insight from the discussion is the relationship between energy sources and societal moral values. The speaker proposes that the dominant energy source in a society impacts its cultural and ethical frameworks. Societies that rely heavily on fossil fuels, for instance, may develop moral and organizational structures aimed at maximizing energy extraction and productivity. This shift in values provides a compelling explanation for why different societies prioritize various ethical considerations based on their energy needs.
Geography and Historical Patterns
The influence of geography on the development of civilizations is a central theme in the podcast. The speaker explains that geographic factors can create foundational advantages for certain societies, leading to long-term structural inequalities. For example, regions with abundant natural resources can foster the growth of powerful governments that further entrench these advantages. This relationship suggests that geographic context is crucial in understanding the rise and fall of civilizations throughout history.
Contingency in Historical Outcomes
Contingency plays a pivotal role in historical outcomes, a theme explored in the discussion. The speaker indicates that while certain overarching trends exist, individual events and decisions can substantially affect the course of history. There are numerous examples where a single leader or a specific event dramatically shifts the trajectory of a society. This notion emphasizes that while substantial forces shape history, the actions of individuals can lead to significant historical changes.
The Impact of Climate on Societal Development
The podcast addresses how climatic conditions can influence the trajectory of civilizations. Changes in climate can alter agricultural practices, resource availability, and consequently, social structures. The speaker suggests that societies that adapt quickly to climatic shifts are more likely to thrive, whereas those that cannot adapt may face catastrophic consequences. This underscores the intimate connection between environmental conditions and human decision-making throughout history.
Technology and the Changing Nature of Warfare
The discussion pivots to the evolution of warfare and its implications for society. The speaker argues that advancements in military technology—the transition from traditional warfare to nuclear and cyber capabilities—have reshaped international relations and power dynamics. With the advent of weapons of mass destruction, the costs of war have escalated dramatically, prompting nations to seek alternative means of conflict resolution. This shift poses questions about how societies will navigate these new landscapes in the future.
Historical Patterns of Expansion and Conflict
The podcast highlights patterns of expansion and conflict throughout history as integral to understanding societal development. Empires have historically expanded their reach through conquest, which can create new opportunities for violence reduction and state formation. However, as empires grow, they also become more susceptible to internal conflict and challenge from within. This cyclical pattern serves to illustrate the complex dynamics between power, expansion, and the potential for violence.
The Role of Unexpected Consequences in History
The discussion delves into the unexpected consequences that arise from historical events. Whether it’s the unintended fallout from a war or the consequences of novel energy sources, history is replete with examples of outcomes that were unforeseen. These unexpected consequences often shape future developments in profound ways. This reality emphasizes the need for humility in understanding past events and caution when predicting future trajectories.
Cultural Evolution and Social Change
Cultural evolution is explored in the podcast as a fundamental aspect of human history. The speaker points out that societies constantly adapt their beliefs and practices in response to changing environments and social conditions. These cultural shifts often occur incrementally, driven by practical necessity rather than ideological reasoning. This notion directly challenges the idea that moral and ethical systems remain static, highlighting their fluidity and responsiveness to broader societal changes.
Future Prospects and Global Hegemony
The speaker raises the question of future global dynamics and the potential shift in hegemony. In the context of rising powers such as China, the discussion examines whether current trends will continue to favor Western dominance or if we are witnessing a paradigm shift. The implications of this transition could be vast, affecting global governance, economics, and cultural interactions. This element of uncertainty underscores the challenges facing current leaders as they navigate an increasingly multipolar world.
The Dual Edges of Prosperity
The podcast discusses the notion that prosperity can lead to both progress and peril. While increased access to resources and wealth can improve living standards, it can also lead to moral dilemmas and conflicts, especially as societies face new challenges related to environmental sustainability. The discussion reveals the paradox of prosperity, suggesting that while societies strive for progress, they must also contend with the potential consequences of their actions. This duality presents a critical challenge as we move further into the 21st century.
Wind back 1,000 years and the moral landscape looks very different to today. Most farming societies thought slavery was natural and unobjectionable, premarital sex was an abomination, women should obey their husbands, and commoners should obey their monarchs.
Wind back 10,000 years and things look very different again. Most hunter-gatherer groups thought men who got too big for their britches needed to be put in their place rather than obeyed, and lifelong monogamy could hardly be expected of men or women.
Why such big systematic changes — and why these changes specifically?
That's the question bestselling historian Ian Morris takes up in his book, Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve. Ian has spent his academic life studying long-term history, trying to explain the big-picture changes that play out over hundreds or thousands of years.
Rebroadcast: this episode was originally released in July 2022.
Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.
There are a number of possible explanations one could offer for the wide-ranging shifts in opinion on the 'right' way to live. Maybe the natural sciences progressed and people realised their previous ideas were mistaken? Perhaps a few persuasive advocates turned the course of history with their revolutionary arguments? Maybe everyone just got nicer?
In Foragers, Farmers and Fossil Fuels Ian presents a provocative alternative: human culture gradually evolves towards whatever system of organisation allows a society to harvest the most energy, and we then conclude that system is the most virtuous one. Egalitarian values helped hunter-gatherers hunt and gather effectively. Once farming was developed, hierarchy proved to be the social structure that produced the most grain (and best repelled nomadic raiders). And in the modern era, democracy and individuality have proven to be more productive ways to collect and exploit fossil fuels.
On this theory, it's technology that drives moral values much more than moral philosophy. Individuals can try to persist with deeply held values that limit economic growth, but they risk being rendered irrelevant as more productive peers in their own society accrue wealth and power. And societies that fail to move with the times risk being conquered by more pragmatic neighbours that adapt to new technologies and grow in population and military strength.
There are many objections one could raise to this theory, many of which we put to Ian in this interview. But the question is a highly consequential one: if we want to guess what goals our descendants will pursue hundreds of years from now, it would be helpful to have a theory for why our ancestors mostly thought one thing, while we mostly think another.
Big though it is, the driver of human values is only one of several major questions Ian has tackled through his career.
In this classic episode, we discuss all of Ian's major books.
Chapters:
- Rob's intro (00:00:53)
- The interview begins (00:02:30)
- Geography is Destiny (00:03:38)
- Why the West Rules—For Now (00:12:04)
- War! What is it Good For? (00:28:19)
- Expectations for the future (00:40:22)
- Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels (00:53:53)
- Historical methodology (01:03:14)
- Falsifiable alternative theories (01:15:59)
- Archaeology (01:22:56)
- Energy extraction technology as a key driver of human values (01:37:43)
- Allowing people to debate about values (02:00:16)
- Can productive wars still occur? (02:13:28)
- Where is history contingent and where isn’t it? (02:30:23)
- How Ian thinks about the future (03:13:33)
- Macrohistory myths (03:29:51)
- Ian’s favourite archaeology memory (03:33:19)
- The most unfair criticism Ian’s ever received (03:35:17)
- Rob's outro (03:39:55)
Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell
Transcriptions: Katy Moore
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