60. The economics behind Sunak’s general election gamble with Torsten Bell
May 22, 2024
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Torsten Bell from the Resolution Foundation discusses the economic implications of the upcoming general election, focusing on inflation, interest rates, and living standards. They explore the impact of lower inflation on voters, households' shift towards saving, and the uncertainty surrounding interest rates in the current economic landscape.
Lowering inflation impacts economic choices during elections, reflecting on the electorate's decisions.
Real wage growth offers relief, but rising prices on essentials hinder actual living standard improvement.
Discrepancy between government narrative of economic improvement and public experience highlights cost-of-living challenges.
Deep dives
Inflation and Economic Choices
Inflation figures affect the electorate's economic choices. The recent lowering of inflation to 2.3% brings optimism, but service inflation remains a concern. Real wages are finally growing, providing relief after a period of stagnant wages. The Bank of England's 2% target and interest rate decisions are critical.
Impact of Wages and Prices on Living Standards
Wages are showing positive growth, with real wages rising around 3%. However, the impact of rising prices, especially on essentials like food and energy, hinders actual improvement in living standards. The public's perception of economic improvement and government credit remains crucial.
Government's Response to Inflation and Public Perception
Despite inflation nearing the Bank of England's target, the public's experience of higher prices challenges the government's narrative of economic improvement. Food prices remain significantly higher, leading to doubts about the claimed progress in living standards.
Challenges in Public Perception and Economic Realities
While statistics show wage growth and lower inflation, the public's feel-good factor and credit for the government remain elusive. The discrepancy between economic data and people's lived experiences underscores the complexity of addressing cost-of-living challenges.
Critical Analysis of Fiscal Policies and Economic Forecasting
The podcast delves into the IMF report and fiscal policy challenges. While forecasted growth rates impact election promises, the focus shifts to solving poverty issues through a balance of investment, benefits, and long-term economic strategies. The relationship between political rhetoric and economic realities drives discussions on practical economic solutions.
What are the implications of lower inflation for a general election? In a globalised economy, do we really have control of our prices as a country? And with lower inflation will we see some relief on interest rates? Robert and Steph are joined by Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, to answer all these questions and more