Science Fictions Episode 90: Cognitive dissonance
Nov 11, 2025
A deep dive into cognitive dissonance reveals surprising doubts about its foundation. Hosts explore archival research questioning classic studies, including a notorious UFO cult infiltration by Festinger. They analyze biases in observations and the reliability of famous anecdotes versus rigorous experiments. A 2024 multi-lab replication efforts unveils the dissonance effect's failure to hold true. The discussion leads to reflections on the legacy of 20th-century social psychology, assessing which findings still maintain credibility amidst controversies.
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Core Idea Of Cognitive Dissonance
- Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort from holding contradictory beliefs and motivates people to change one belief or behavior to reduce that discomfort.
- The hosts illustrate the idea with a short play where a podcaster changes his view to resolve conflict between statements and actions.
Festinger's Cult Fieldwork Example
- Leon Festinger infiltrated a Chicago UFO group and wrote When Prophecy Fails about their prophecy and reactions when it did not occur.
- Festinger reported that the most committed members doubled down and increased proselytizing after the failed prophecy.
Archival Paper Challenges Festinger
- Thomas Kelly's new archival paper 'Debunking When Prophecy Fails' argues the book misrepresented the cult's behavior and proselytizing patterns.
- Kelly claims evidence for Festinger's central claim (doubling down after failure) did not exist and was mischaracterized.
