The podcast discusses the importance of investing in scarcity, highlighting examples of overproduction. It questions the accuracy of the CPI number and its impact on healthcare. The concern over the lack of diversification in portfolios is explored, with gold suggested as a safe haven asset. The dangers of data control and the need for individual freedom are discussed. The relationship between inflation and the CPI number is examined, cautioning against assuming victory over inflation based on temporary dips.
Tax receipts indicate a possible recession despite a strong labor force and rising incomes.
Market preference for volatility and portfolio gains over data accuracy is evident from positive reactions to fabricated CPI figures.
Deep dives
Declining Tax Receipts and Potential Recession
Tax receipts have been declining by 8-9% in 2023, indicating a possible recession. This is puzzling considering the strong labor force and rising incomes. The decline in tax receipts supports the belief that a recession is likely.
CPI Manipulation and Market Reactions
The CPI numbers released last week raised concerns about data manipulation. The CPI figures were fabricated to create the illusion of lower inflation, contrary to consumer expectations. Despite skepticism, the markets reacted positively, highlighting the preference for volatility and portfolio gains over data accuracy.
Market Uniformity and Diversification Challenges
The current market trends show a uniformity in asset class movements, driven by the common factor of debt. This makes diversification challenging as all assets move in sync. The lack of non-correlated options increases volatility and poses risks to portfolios.
Geopolitical Risks and Gold as a Safe Haven
Geopolitical risks remain a growing danger and are out of sync with the curated economic world. This presents a need to hedge geopolitical tail risks. Gold, traditionally a safe haven asset, may regain its status as the preferred safe haven due to the cracks in the debt-based system.
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