FDD Morning Brief How Iran's unfolding revolution tests U.S. policy | feat. Steven A. Cook
Jan 19, 2026
Steven A. Cook, a Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, delves into Iran's ongoing revolution, discussing its brutal crackdown and the potential for a prolonged uprising. He sheds light on the complexities of U.S. policy towards Syria amid recent clashes involving the Kurds and ISIS. Additionally, Cook analyzes Turkey's expanding influence and its implications for the region, particularly in Gaza, while exploring the rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over regional strategies.
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Iran Protests Could Mirror 1979 Timeline
- Iran's current protests could mark the start of a long revolutionary process similar to 1978–79.
- Steven A. Cook warns the regime's brutal repression aims to convince fence-sitters the cost of protest is unbearably high.
Repression Likely Far Worse Than Official Counts
- The regime's casualty figures understate reality and repression includes use of foreign militias and heavy weapons.
- Cook and Jon Schanzer indicate actual deaths are likely far higher than official counts.
Reassess U.S. Iran Assumptions Now
- Take Washington's vocal support for Iranian protesters seriously and abandon old assumptions about diplomacy with Tehran.
- Cook urges policymakers to discard beliefs that financial incentives or negotiations will easily sway the regime.