Capital Ideas Podcast Washington watch: Outlook for the U.S. midterm elections
Jan 15, 2026
In this engaging discussion, Matt Miller, a political economist at Capital Group, shares insights on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. He explores the dynamics of Congressional control and its implications for investors. Will Trump defy midterm history this time? Miller analyzes potential economic strategies, including the influence of tariffs and Fed chair selections. He also delves into immigration narratives and the effects of inflation on policy decisions. A must-listen for anyone curious about the political landscape ahead!
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Midterms Determine Policy Momentum
- Control of Congress will shape whether Trump is on offense or playing defense after the midterms.
- That congressional outcome will materially affect policy direction and asset values, says Matt Miller.
Playing The Economy Hot Ahead Of The Vote
- The administration may try to 'run the economy hot' via Fed policy and housing measures to boost approval.
- Matt Miller warns these moves could lower rates ahead of the midterms and risk longer-term inflation.
Monitor Housing Emergency Moves
- Watch for an administration-declared 'housing emergency' aimed at lowering mortgage rates before midterms.
- Investors should prepare for policy steps that could directly depress long-term yields and boost housing affordability measures.