In The Trenches

Hard to Kill: A Four-Part Framework for Evaluating Small Business Acquisitions

Dec 11, 2025
Dive into the complexities of small business acquisitions with a unique four-part framework that aims to clarify investment decisions. Explore the concept of asymmetry—where potential upside outweighs downside. Discover the importance of avoiding existential risks, like customer concentration. Learn why protecting the downside is crucial, and see examples of resilient companies ideal for first-time CEOs. Plus, gain insights from real-world success stories that exemplify this investment philosophy.
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INSIGHT

Prefer Positive Upside Asymmetry

  • Seek deals where upside meaningfully exceeds downside to create positive asymmetry.
  • Avoid structures like excessive leverage that can turn limited upside into total loss.
INSIGHT

Avoid Single Points Of Failure

  • Avoid single points of failure because any one zero can nullify everything else.
  • Prioritize resilience over headlines, even if the existential risk seems unlikely.
ADVICE

Prioritize Downside Protection

  • Protect the downside first rather than chasing outsized upside.
  • Prefer higher-probability moderate returns over low-probability home runs that risk total loss.
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