Generational Divides of Other Countries || Peter Zeihan
Feb 20, 2025
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Explore the fascinating generational divides in Russia, China, and Iran, shaped by unique historical contexts. Discover the economic struggles of Chinese youth, grappling with housing and family formation amidst stagnant political policies. Delve into the political turmoil in China and Iran, revealing the consequences of oppression and migration crises on younger generations. This insightful analysis sheds light on how these factors create distinct identities and perspectives that differ from the West.
In Russia, older generations recall the political turmoil of the Soviet era, influencing their cautious approach to democracy compared to the politically naive youth shaped by Putin's stability.
China's generational divide is deeply influenced by the one-child policy, creating contrasting outlooks between older adults who endured instability and younger individuals facing systemic economic challenges.
Deep dives
Understanding Generational Demographics Globally
Demographic categorizations vary significantly between countries due to historical, economic, and cultural factors. In the United States, Baby Boomers were born during the post-World War II boom, while Generation X followed, facing a drop in birth rates influenced by changing social norms and economic conditions. Millennials and Zoomers have experienced the transition to a digital world, but similar generational differences can’t be uniformly applied to other nations like Iran, China, and Russia. Recognizing the unique circumstances that shape each generation is crucial to understanding their societal roles and perspectives.
The Impact of Political History in Russia
In Russia, significant generational divides arise from varying memories of political and economic systems, particularly linked to Brezhnev and Putin. Those born during or before Brezhnev's time are more likely to recall the stagnation and may approach democracy with apprehension, having witnessed economic chaos post-Soviet Union. Conversely, younger generations, who have known primarily stable governance under Putin, lack political memories from the Soviet era, shaping their future perceptions and actions. The demographic decline observed since the fall of the Soviet Union suggests that the current youth, although limited in number, carry immense potential for influencing Russia's future.
Demographic Influences in China and Iran
China's demographic landscape has been significantly shaped by the one-child policy, creating stark contrasts between those born before and after its implementation. Older generations recall hardships and instability, while younger generations have benefitted from unprecedented economic growth, though they now face challenges from an overinvested system. In Iran, the generational divide hinges on experiences before and after the 1979 revolution, which drastically altered social dynamics and led to significant emigration of the educated class. The current Iranian youth, who have faced persistent state failures, are increasingly discontent, suggesting a potential for unrest in a landscape marked by disenfranchisement and economic struggles.
I've talked extensively about the generational divides in the US, but what about other countries? Let's look at the unique demographic trends in Russia, China, and Iran.