Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg shares his insights on the financial market’s imminent challenges. He predicts a euphoric final surge in risk assets, followed by a significant downturn, citing overvaluation and looming recession risks linked to the housing market. Zeberg discusses Bitcoin’s potential rally to $148K and a bullish outlook for Ethereum and small-cap stocks. He warns of a deflationary environment if the Fed maintains tight policies too long, while making a strong case for gold and commodities as vital investments.
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insights INSIGHT
Housing Market Weakness Triggers Recession
The business cycle model predicts an upcoming economic deterioration despite current strength in the labor market.\n- The housing market weakness will ultimately trigger the economic downturn and recession.
insights INSIGHT
Strong Labor Market, Weak Housing
The labor market remains strong but the U.S. housing market is very weak with declining activity and prices.\n- This housing market weakness anchors the economy and will cause a rapid market sell-off when conditions deteriorate.
insights INSIGHT
Housing Market Outlook Deteriorates
Despite minor bounces, mortgage applications and affordability remain very weak, indicating worsening housing conditions.\n- Leading indicators suggest the housing market will deteriorate further, likely leading to recession and stock market peaks later.
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Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg lays out his thesis for what he calls the “final blow-off top” in markets — a last euphoric surge in risk assets before a brutal reversal and market crash.
Zeberg explains why leading indicators are flashing red even as the labor market remains resilient, and highlights housing market weakness as the hidden trigger for an eventual recession. He warns that the Fed is overly focused on inflation and risks causing a deflationary bust by maintaining tight policy too long.
He also dives into:
• Why markets are overvalued
• Bitcoin’s projected run to $148K, fueled by global liquidity (M2)
• Why Ethereum and altcoins could soon explode
• Expectations for the S&P 500 to reach 6800+
• The coming rotation into small-cap and speculative stocks
• A powerful long-term case for gold and commodities, but warns of short-term downside
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