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Goldman Sachs The Markets
Divergence watch: ECB decision and central banks’ policy paths
Jul 19, 2024
Gurpreet Garewal from Goldman Sachs Asset Management discusses ECB decision's impact on central banks worldwide and currency & fixed income markets. Topics include potential second rate cut in September, inflation risks, market reactions post-meeting, Euro weakness, and upcoming events affecting credit investments.
08:02
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Quick takeaways
- ECB may align with a second rate cut in September based on evolving data.
- Divergence in global monetary policy paths presents cross-market interest rate opportunities.
Deep dives
ECB's Policy Path and Potential Second Rate Cut in September
The ECB kept its policy unchanged following a rate cut in June, with President Lagarde indicating that data will determine September's decision. Market insights suggest alignment with a potential second ECB rate cut next month. Factors such as evolving data, downplayed inflation and wage growth, and favorable inflation expectations can influence this decision. Risks of persistent services inflation from tourism and live events like concerts are being monitored, potentially delaying future rate cuts.
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