Lower Risk Outside The US?

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The conventional wisdom is that when the value of a country'scurrency falls relative to its trading partners, its exports become more competitive in the global market. It's no secret that the Trump Administration is aiming to bring more manufacturing back to the United States.Global flows of capital have changed since the start of the year. While the administration wishes to bring increasing levels of capital investment to the United States many of the policies are in fact having the opposite effect. President Trump has stated publicly that he wishes the US dollar to fall compared with other currencies including the Japanese Yen, the Euro, the Chinese Yuan and the Canadian Dollar.An increasing number of investors are looking for a safe haven for their capital. The US dollar has fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year against most of the major currencies. Indications are that it is forecast to fall even further when measured against other major currencies.

We think that real estate investments in Canada represent a better risk adjusted proposition right now. This is based on the following observations:

1) The slowdown in new construction that we have seen across the US is also present in Canada. This means that labor rates in Canada for new construction have moderated and we are seeing extremely competitive bids for new work.

2) Immigration to the US is down significantly since the start of the year and demand for new housing will decline as a result. The US has pretty much closed the door refugee claimants. This includes countries like Afghanistan where many US allies are stranded and have no path to enter the US.

3) Immigration to Canada remains in extremely high demand. The Canadian government has reduced its immigration targets slightly, but the numbers remain extremely high especially when compared to the US as a percentage of the population.

4) Interest rates in Canada are much lower for borrowing. The 5 year Canada mortgage bond is trading around 3.1% which means that a new construction and permanent financing loan could price below 4%. Rates are not that low in the US.

5) Canada is not waging a trade war against the rest of the world. While prices for certain construction commodities like electrical equipment and air conditioners will certainly be impacted by tariffs in the US, we are not seeing the same impact in Canada. Many manufacturers have operations in North America including Mexico. These goods can flow into Canada free of any tariffs under USMCA.

6) Even with new apartment supply having entered the market, vacancy rates in most Canadian cities are far below comparable US markets.

7) If the US dollar falls further as we see the Trump administration wishing, then any investment outside the US goes up in value on a relative basis. Investing is not the same as speculating on foreign exchange rates. That alone should not be a reason for investing outside the US. It’s just one of many factors to consider when looking at aggregate probabilities.

When we put all of these factors together, we see a compelling case for investing in Canada, even for US investors.

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