Merryn Talks Money Recession Threat Is Back—and Maybe Something Worse
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Jun 13, 2025 Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist at BCA Research, dives deep into the economic currents threatening the U.S., emphasizing that the looming deficit may be a greater concern than Trump’s policies. He assesses the 60% chance of recession linked to weak job data and rising consumer debt. Berezin highlights how declining immigration could exacerbate labor shortages and inflation. Additionally, he discusses the complexities of market dynamics and offers strategies for navigating the uncertain economic landscape ahead.
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US Recession Risk Rises
- The US recession risk is currently at about 60% due to fading economic insulation from excess job openings and pandemic savings.
- Rising consumer delinquency rates and trade war threats increase likelihood of recession this year.
High Tariffs Impact Growth
- US effective tariff rate is around 15%, similar to rates in the 1930s but with a larger trade share in GDP.
- Higher current tariffs impose a meaningful 2% income loss on the median US household, impacting growth.
US Debt Crisis Looms
- US government debt trajectory is unsustainable with rising deficits and high interest rates causing unprecedented interest expenses.
- Interest expense could reach 6% of GDP, risking a debt crisis unless deficits are reduced.