The President's Daily Brief PDB Situation Report | November 15th, 2025: China’s Coming Digital Invasion of Taiwan & Tehran’s Looming Crisis
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Nov 15, 2025 Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral and cyber strategy expert, discusses China's non-kinetic approach to potentially choking Taiwan's energy supplies without military action. He warns of devastating impacts on Taiwan’s grid and global chip production if LNG imports are disrupted. Meanwhile, Shahin Gobadi, a spokesman for the National Council of Resistance of Iran, reveals Iran's self-inflicted water crisis, tensions from power rationing, and the likelihood of citizen uprisings, pointing towards the necessity of internal regime change for lasting stability.
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Energy Blockade Could Win Without Invasion
- China could coerce Taiwan without invading by throttling its energy lifelines, notably LNG shipments that supply ~50% of power.
- Losing those shipments for weeks forces Taiwan to choose between hospitals and semiconductor plants, shifting the pain to global supply chains.
Operational Experience Shapes The Analysis
- Mark Montgomery draws on his Navy carrier strike group and Indo‑PACOM operations experience to assess Taiwan scenarios.
- He recounts war games where Taiwan prioritized cutting industrial power, transferring pain to global supply chains.
Kinetic Attack Timeline Pushed Later
- A kinetic cross-strait invasion seems less likely before 2030–2031 due to improved allied munitions, budgets, and China's economic slowdown.
- Cyber-enabled economic warfare is more probable in the near term and could be timed around Taiwan's 2028 election.