RiskReversal Pod

CrackBerry to RoboTaxi: How Dan Niles Thrives In Tech Investing Hype Cycles

Apr 24, 2025
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INSIGHT

High Valuations and AI Spending Risks

  • Market valuations are high with S&P 500 trading at 25 times trailing PE, well above historical averages.
  • AI spending faces a digestion phase where ROI is crucial and may pressure growth stocks.
INSIGHT

Stimulus Masks Fundamentals

  • Markets have been a one-way trade boosted by government and Fed stimulus since the financial crisis.
  • Fundamentals are often ignored until market conditions turn challenging, leading to sharp corrections.
ANECDOTE

Tech Dominance Changes Fast

  • Dominant tech companies of the past, like Nokia, Motorola, and RIM, were displaced by new innovations like the iPhone.
  • Dan reflects on his humility gained over time realizing market leaders can change quickly.
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