Exclusive interview with General David Petraeus, Former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Sep 9, 2023
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General David Petraeus, Former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, discusses the Ukrainian counter-offensive, arms deliveries, Western support, and the implications of the war on future warfare and Western foreign policy. The chapter also explores the progress and challenges in Ukraine, the evolution of warfare, the use of social media and open source intelligence, the influence of the Afghanistan withdrawal on global events, and the importance of maintaining the UK-US special relationship.
The Ukrainians have made steady progress in reclaiming their territory through a counter-offensive, but additional support is needed to overcome Russian defenses.
Extensive support from the US and other countries has been crucial in Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion, but more needs to be done to convince Russia that the war is not winnable.
The war in Ukraine showcases a mix of past, present, and future elements of warfare, highlighting the integration of advanced unmanned systems and the challenges of intelligence gathering and analysis.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Counter-Offensive: Progress and Challenges
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Ukrainians have been making steady progress in reclaiming their territory. They have successfully liberated parts of their territory and won battles in key cities like Kyiv, Harkiv, and Chernikiv. The Russians' main focus was to take the capital, but that has failed. The Ukrainians have launched a counter-offensive and made modest gains, and there is a possibility of making more significant gains. However, the counter-offensive is difficult and costly, and it will continue into the fall and winter. The Russians have an extensive defense in depth in the south, making it challenging for the Ukrainians to make significant breakthroughs. The Ukrainians need additional support, such as mounted breaching capabilities and air cover, to overcome the Russian defenses.
Western Support and Assistance to Ukraine
The US and other key countries have provided extensive support to Ukraine, including arms, ammunition, and assistance totaling over $44 billion. This support has been crucial in helping Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. However, there have been delays in providing certain capabilities, such as M1 tanks and cluster munitions. It is important to accelerate decision-making and provide additional critical elements to enhance Ukraine's military capabilities. The comprehensive approach, including financial, economic, and personal sanctions, has had an impact on Russia, but more needs to be done to convince Russia that the war is not winnable.
Lessons from Past Wars and the Future of Warfare
The war in Ukraine showcases a mix of past, present, and future elements of warfare. While there are glimpses of future technologies like maritime drones and advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, the conflict also includes traditional elements such as trenches and minefields reminiscent of World War I and II. The future of warfare involves the integration of advanced unmanned systems in various domains, including air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace. However, getting inside the mind of adversaries and making accurate assessments remains a challenge. The availability of open source intelligence and big data presents both opportunities and challenges in intelligence gathering and analysis.
The Importance of the US-UK Relationship in Facing Global Challenges
The US-UK relationship, known as the special relationship, has been vital in addressing global challenges, including the current conflicts in Ukraine and the need to counter rising powers like China. It is crucial for Global Britain to maintain and resource its capabilities across various domains, including military, diplomatic, intelligence, and law enforcement. Both countries working together, along with other allies, can help establish a more mutually beneficial relationship with China while ensuring deterrent capabilities. The UK's contributions in terms of resources and expertise are important for maintaining a strong global presence and upholding the rules-based international order.
The Complexity of Dealing with China
China poses both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, the situation in Taiwan is a significant concern. In the long term, the goals and actions of the Chinese government, such as asserting political ideology and system, pose a threat to the existing international order. Maintaining deterrence and reducing vulnerabilities is crucial in managing the relationship with China. Efforts should be made to establish communication channels, manage risks, and work towards a more mutually beneficial relationship. However, caution is necessary, and capabilities must be enhanced to address potential threats and protect the rules-based international order.
General David Petraeus is one of America’s most famous soldiers in the modern era, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan before a year in charge of the CIA.
The Telegraph’s Ukraine: The Latest podcast team interviewed Patraeus about his views on the war in Ukraine. He spoke about the Ukrainian counter-offensive, arms deliveries, western support, what the invasion means for the future of warfare and how western foreign policy has changed in the shadow of Iraq.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Host). @djknowles22 on Twitter.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.
