Future Discontinuous What does the fall of Assad mean for Russia, Mark Galeotti?
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Dec 13, 2024 
Mark Galeotti, a prominent expert on Russian politics and security, dives into the implications of Assad's fall on Russia's foreign policy. He discusses Moscow's shock and the strategic value of Syria, highlighting the potential complications for Russia's military presence in Africa. Galeotti also explores the evolving Russia-Iran relationship and the pragmatic path towards rebuilding ties with Israel. He warns of the brittle nature of Putin’s regime and the economic pressures that could impact Russia's ongoing actions in Ukraine.
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Syria Is About Bases, Not Just Assad
- Syria's collapse forced Russia to reinterpret its intervention as largely about bases, not regime survival.
- Losing bases would cut Russia's Middle East and Africa reach and could be a domestic humiliation for Moscow.
The High Price Of Syrian Deployment
- Maintaining troops in Syria cost Russia roughly $20 billion a year and yielded diminishing returns since 2015.
- Without Khmeimim and Tartus, logistical reach into Africa and the Middle East becomes slower, costlier, and Turkish-dependent.
Turkey Holds The Tap Over Russian Logistics
- Losing Syrian airbases forces Russia to route cargo via Turkey or by slow sea journeys, reducing operational tempo.
- Erdogan gains leverage over Russian Africa operations by controlling airspace access.
