The Big Story Back from the dead? Support for the federal Liberals is surging
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Feb 12, 2025 Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, delves into the surprising resurgence of the federal Liberals in Canadian politics. He discusses the impact of Donald Trump's influence on voter sentiments and how this is shaping the political landscape. The conversation also touches on the leadership race between Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, and the Conservatives' strategic pivot towards nationalism. Bratt analyzes how these dynamics could affect the timing of the next federal election amidst shifting public opinions.
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Liberal Resurgence
- Two theories explain the Liberal Party's resurgence: replacing an unpopular leader and the "Trump effect".
- The latter posits that the election's focus shifted to handling Trump, where Liberals have a stronger case than Poilievre.
Dead Cat Bounce
- When unpopular leaders like John Turner and Kim Campbell were replaced, their parties initially saw increased support.
- This "dead cat bounce" suggests a temporary boost from leadership change, though its impact is debatable.
Carney's Edge
- Despite both Freeland and Carney having experience dealing with Trump, Carney is perceived as better equipped.
- This is likely because Carney is seen as an outsider, while Freeland's close association with Trudeau might hinder her.