Back from the dead? Support for the federal Liberals is surging
Feb 12, 2025
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Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, delves into the surprising resurgence of the federal Liberals in Canadian politics. He discusses the impact of Donald Trump's influence on voter sentiments and how this is shaping the political landscape. The conversation also touches on the leadership race between Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, and the Conservatives' strategic pivot towards nationalism. Bratt analyzes how these dynamics could affect the timing of the next federal election amidst shifting public opinions.
The Liberal Party's resurgence in public support is linked to the strategic positioning of leadership candidates like Mark Carney, contrasting with lingering discontent towards Trudeau.
The Conservative Party faces challenges in rebranding its narrative and articulating a clear response to U.S. tariffs while vying for national unity.
Deep dives
Political Shift and Liberal Resurgence
The Liberal Party of Canada has experienced a significant shift in voter support, particularly following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Initially, the Liberals struggled, trailing significantly behind the Conservatives in polls. However, recent polling indicates a narrowing gap, with some surveys showing it as close as a tie. This change in public sentiment has been attributed to various factors, including the emergence of external threats under the Trump administration, which prompted voters to reconsider their support for the Liberal Party as a viable option for leadership.
Leadership Dynamics: Carney vs. Freeland
The Liberal leadership race has emerged as a crucial factor in the party's evolving fortunes, with Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland positioning themselves as top contenders. Carney's perceived outsider status and his record in economic crisis management have resonated with voters, giving him a competitive edge over Freeland, who has been closely associated with Trudeau’s administration. This association has hindered Freeland's appeal, as some voters may hold lingering resentment toward Trudeau's leadership. Thus, while both candidates claim capability in handling relations with Trump, Carney's distance from prior controversies seems to benefit him in the current political climate.
Conservative Party's Strategic Challenges
The Conservative Party, under Pierre Polyev, is facing the challenge of redefining its narrative amid changing political dynamics and the looming threat of tariffs from the U.S. After a sustained focus on criticizing Trudeau, Polyev has attempted to shift the party's message towards national pride and unity in response to external challenges. However, many Canadians remain uncertain about how Polyev would effectively address issues related to Trump, especially in contrast to the more established credentials of Liberal contenders. This struggle to pivot has complicated the Conservatives’ strategy, as they must now navigate a political landscape that emphasizes collaboration and effective leadership against international pressures.
A month ago, the federal Liberals were in the basement of Canadian politics, trailing the Conservatives by close to 30% in public opinion polls.
But a month is a long time in politics, and the fortunes for the Liberal party have seen a stunning reversal in a short amount of time.
Host Cormac Mac Sweeney speaks with Mount Royal University Political Scientist Duane Bratt, about how the Trump effect is having an impact on Canadian politics, how the Conservatives are pivoting to try and maintain their lead, and what this may mean for the timing of the next federal election.
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