Join Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks and Oaktree's Global Credit and Opportunistic Credit teams as they discuss the sea change thesis, trends in high yield bonds and leveraged loans, and key themes in today's restructuring environment during Oaktree's client conference.
The 'sea change' thesis by Howard Marks highlights the impact of declining interest rates, benefiting investors but signaling an end due to rising inflation concerns.
The shifting investment landscape stresses the need to adjust strategies in the current rising interest rate environment for better alignment with economic conditions.
Deep dives
Sea Change in Financial Markets
Howard Marks discusses the fundamental shift termed 'sea change' in financial markets due to the significant and long-lasting changes influenced by highly accommodative monetary policy. Marks highlights the profound impact of declining interest rates on the economy, business profitability, asset values, cost of capital, and default rates. The prolonged period of declining rates has majorly benefited investors, stimulating economic growth and reducing borrowing costs, but this favorable era is believed to have come to an end with inflation concerns and rising interest rates.
Implications of Rate Changes on Investment Strategies
The podcast highlights how the investment landscape is shifting as interest rates are no longer at historic lows. The discussion emphasizes that strategies that excelled during periods of low or declining rates may not perform as effectively in the current rising rate environment. The potential slower economic growth, reduced profit margins, and higher default rates are cited as consequences of the changing interest rate scenario. The need to reassess and adjust investment strategies to align with the new economic conditions is underscored.
Prospects and Challenges in High Yield and Senior Loans
The conversation delves into the differences between rescue lending and direct lending, where rescue lending offers higher yields, better downside protections, and more restrictive documentation due to the hair on the situations involved. The competitive landscape for rescue financings is limited, not involving CLOs or direct lenders, making these deals less competitive and potentially more lucrative. As interest rates remain higher, the opportunities in rescue lending may expand, especially with the prevalence of loose documents and the impact of increased rates on businesses with weaker balance sheets.
Navigating Investment Opportunities in Restructuring
The episode explores the increased prevalence of asset liability management transactions and in-court restructuring processes driven by loose documents and higher interest rates. The discussion predicts a cycle skewed towards higher-quality businesses with weaker balance sheets due to the impact of increased rates. As businesses face restructuring challenges in this environment, there is an anticipated rise in diverse cycle activities, focusing more on good businesses with unfavorable balance sheets, requiring careful assessment and strategic positioning in the market.
In a special edition of The Insight: Conversations, you’ll hear excerpts from multiple sessions held during Oaktree’s recent biannual client conference. Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks does a deep dive into his sea change thesis, members of Oaktree’s Global Credit team examine the most significant trends impacting the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets, and Oaktree’s Opportunistic Credit team explores key themes reshaping today’s restructuring environment.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode