Former CIA officer Doug London talks about the future of intelligence in Afghanistan and forming alliances with warlords. Brigadier General Francis X. Taylor discusses dealing with violent extremists in the military ranks and the importance of maintaining unit cohesion and good order. The podcast also addresses the controversy over the military's discussion of extremism and critical race theory.
The CIA may employ a stay-behind strategy, collaborating with warlords and resuscitating alliances from the past, to counter the Taliban in a potential civil war scenario in Afghanistan.
The reliability of the Taliban as a partner and the potential impacts on security in Kabul, including the safety of Americans and the rescue of CIA assets, raise concerns in the face of a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.
Deep dives
Main Point 1: Extremism Stand-Down in the U.S. Military
The U.S. military declared a stand-down to examine the issue of extremism in the ranks following the involvement of current and former military members in the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Republican Congressman Matt Gates argues that the stand-down was counterproductive, claiming that it impaired group cohesion and caused service members to turn against each other.
Main Point 2: The CIA's Approach in Afghanistan
Retired CIA officer Douglas London discusses the agency's approach in Afghanistan amid the Taliban's recent gains. The CIA is expected to have employed a stay-behind strategy, using local agents or surrogates to maintain collection efforts without having case officers on the ground. London suggests that in a potential scenario of civil war, the CIA may align with warlords and resuscitate alliances from the past to counter the Taliban.
Main Point 3: Possible Scenarios for Afghanistan's Future
London highlights that a complete Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is uncertain, as in the pre-9/11 era, the Taliban did not have control over the entire country. A resumption of civil war is more likely, with various factions fighting for power. The CIA may collaborate with Afghan warlords, similar to the past, and their relationships with key figures from the initial post-9/11 period could shape alliances.
Main Point 4: Risks and Uncertainties in Afghanistan Transition
In the face of a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, concerns arise over potential scenarios such as the Taliban seizing Kabul and an evacuation of the U.S. embassy, similar to the fall of Saigon in 1975. The reliability of the Taliban as a partner and their treatment of foreign presence are questioned. There is also uncertainty surrounding the diplomatic relationship with the Taliban regime and the potential impacts on security in Kabul, including the safety of Americans and the rescue of CIA assets.
Former senior CIA officer Doug London talks with Jeff Stein about the present and future intelligence picture in chaotic Afghanistan. And Jeanne Meserve has a fascinating talk with former top DHS intel official and retired Brigadier General Francis X. Taylor about dealing with violent extremists in the military ranks.