The Bunker – News without the nonsense From Trump to Europe – Who can Ukraine really rely on?
Jul 15, 2025
Keir Giles, a Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House and expert on Russia's military strategies, shares insights into the precarious situation Ukraine faces. He discusses the recent wavering support from the U.S. and its implications for Ukraine’s defense. The conversation evaluates Trump’s influence on U.S. foreign policy regarding Russia, as well as the importance of European military commitments. Giles emphasizes Ukraine's need for consistent international aid to withstand Russian aggression and the complexities of navigating geopolitical relationships.
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Russia's Broad Strategy and Geopolitics
- Russia is pushing forward broadly despite high casualties, focusing on grinding progress rather than quick territorial gains.
- The war is less about battlefield victories and more about a broader geopolitical contest involving coalitions.
Russia's Costly Persistence
- Russia's territorial gains are minimal compared to the massive number of casualties it suffers.
- Russia values grinding progress over measurement by land or losses, signaling a willingness to sustain heavy costs indefinitely.
Ukraine's Technological Evolution
- Ukraine has rapidly evolved technologically, developing its own defense industry to strike deeper into Russia.
- This contrasts with early US restrictions on deep strikes, pushing Ukraine to innovate independently.