Are Markets overestimating 2025 Investment Opportunities with Aahan Menon

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Jan 17, 2025

In this engaging discussion, Aahan Menon, Founder and CEO of Prometheus Research, shares his unique insights into the 2025 investment landscape. He emphasizes the importance of a systematic framework to manage risk amidst uncertainty. Aahan breaks down macro trends such as inflation and interest rates that will shape investment strategies. Listeners learn about the crucial disconnect between popular sentiment and economic data, and explore actionable takeaways for a model ETF portfolio. Get ready to rethink what investing means today!

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INSIGHT

Investment Framework

Prometheus Research uses a systematic, probabilistic framework to analyze markets.
They consider both economic fundamentals (growth, inflation, liquidity) and market sentiment.

INSIGHT

2024 Market Dynamics

2024 market volatility stemmed from mispriced expectations, not economic reality.
The economy performed well, but initial recessionary expectations were priced out.

INSIGHT

Economic Outlook

Prometheus Research's growth gauge suggests a slowing economy, not a recession.
Their inflation gauge indicates inflation will remain around 2% to 2.5%.

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What does 2025 have in store for investors? Join us as we dive deep into the markets, macroeconomics, and the evolving landscape of risk and opportunity with Aahan Menon, Founder and CEO of Prometheus Research. In this special kickoff-to-2025 episode of Raise Your Average, Aahan breaks down his systematic and probabilistic approach to navigating today’s unpredictable economic environment, shares his investment outlook, as well as asset allocation. You may be surprised.

Key Insights:

Macro Trends for 2025: How growth, inflation, and interest rates are setting the stage for the year ahead.

Managing Risk: Why a systematic framework is essential in a time of elevated uncertainty.

Market Narratives Unpacked: The disconnects between popular sentiment and economic data.

Probabilities, Not Predictions: How Prometheus Research quantifies risk and uncovers market opportunities in real time.

Actionable Takeaways: Prometheus' 4 ETF portfolio model, for investors looking to stay ahead of the curve in a rapidly shifting environment.

Quote of the Episode: "Investing today isn’t about certainty—it’s about managing probabilities in a world of growing complexity." – Aahan Menon

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome

01:19 Ahan Menon's Investment Framework

01:58 Market Dynamics and 2024 Review

05:48 Economic Indicators and Forecasts

10:21 Interest Rates and Economic Impact

24:51 Liquidity Conditions and Market Implications

46:52 Manufacturing Sector Challenges

53:15 Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector

53:26 Impact of Borrowing and Leverage

53:58 Wage Costs and Interest Burden

54:46 Investment and Borrowing Trends

56:10 Commodity Market Dynamics

58:02 Alpha Portfolio Strategies

01:01:38 Manufacturing and Economic Growth

01:03:53 Recession Indicators and Economic Slowdown

01:11:29 Real Estate Sector Analysis

01:17:14 Signal Strength and Portfolio Allocation

01:21:34 Bond Market Insights

01:31:58 Commodity Market Outlook

01:36:12 Asset Allocation - What to do now

01:43:40 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Connect with Us:

Follow Aahan Menon on Linkedin

Prometheus Research on Substack

ReSolve Asset Management

Mike Philbrick on Linkedin

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