Ross Douthat joins Jonah Goldberg to analyze the aftermath of the Iowa Caucus and discuss potential scenarios for the 2024 primary election. They explore the negative perception of politicians, the muddled nature of GOP policy positions, the challenges facing the world, and the importance of authenticity in politics. The conversation concludes with a mention of upcoming trip plans and frustration over flight delays.
Despite controversies, Trump is predicted to be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Trump's competitors face challenges in terms of electability and indictments.
The clash between populism and establishment creates challenges within the Republican Party and elite institutions.
Deep dives
The Rise of Donald Trump as the Republican Nominee in 2024
In this podcast episode, the hosts discuss the likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2024. Despite controversies surrounding his personal life, such as numerous divorces and sex scandals, the hosts recognize Trump as a prominent figure and predict his victory in the Republican primary. They comment on the relatively uneventful Iowa caucus, where Trump emerged as the clear winner. The hosts also highlight the limited extent of punditry in analyzing the race, and speculate on the potential challenges faced by Trump's competitors.
Examining the Political Landscape and Electability
The hosts delve into the overall political landscape and the concept of electability in the upcoming presidential race. They analyze the polls which show Trump, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis performing similarly against Joe Biden in a hypothetical match-up. The hosts discuss the impact of indictments on the race, the shift in public opinion after the 2022 election, and Biden's declining popularity. They question whether Haley's electability argument has been diminished due to these factors and highlight the challenges faced by Trump's challengers.
The Clash Between Populism and Establishment
The hosts explore the clash between populism and establishment in both the Republican Party and elite institutions. They highlight the lack of credibility that institutions have among outside observers, and the difficulty in challenging populist critique. They discuss the incoherence in policy issues within the Republican Party, with factions leaning towards a more Reaganite approach or embracing economic populism. The hosts also reflect on the challenges of populists in power, who often default back to establishment conventional wisdom. They emphasize the need for strong politicians and the importance of parties aiming to win a majority of the public's support.
Lack of Consistency in Defending Donald Trump
There is no safe harbor to be a consistent philosophically and policy-consistent defender of everything that Donald Trump does. Some individuals choose to accept all of the contradictions and defend Trump unconditionally, while others distance themselves from him and continue to support certain ideas.
Challenges of Uncertainty in a Second Trump Administration
The prospect of a second Trump administration poses challenges due to the lack of clarity on personnel, agenda, and strategy. The vacuum of information surrounding Trump's potential second term agenda creates uncertainty, impacting elite credibility and the ability to formulate effective policies for issues such as foreign policy, immigration, and more.
Ross Douthat is back on TheRemnant to provide a post-mortem for the Iowa caucuses. With the first result of the race now in, is Donald Trump’s renomination guaranteed? Where did Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley go wrong? Would a second Trump administration be staffed entirely by crazy people? And could a Trump-Biden rematch cause Jonah and Ross to rethink their life choices?