Currents Ep280: Forecasting Electricity Prices
Jan 16, 2025
Gary Cate, Director of Energy Market Analytics at Fluence, specializes in electricity price forecasting. He discusses optimizing battery performance in electric vehicles and the critical impact of charging practices. Cate delves into the complexities of forecasting prices amid increasing renewable energy usage, emphasizing advanced models and AI's role in enhancing decision-making. He also highlights how predictive analytics can maximize energy storage efficiency, driving better revenue outcomes in a rapidly evolving market.
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Energy Storage Forecast Metrics
- Forecast accuracy metrics for energy storage consider peak and trough prices.
- Revenue capture, comparing naive forecasts with advanced models, is a key metric.
Grid Changes and Forecasting
- Rapid grid changes and storage influx make historical data less relevant for price forecasting.
- Constant model analysis, incorporating new price drivers and human expertise, is essential.
Stochastic Optimization
- Use stochastic optimization, considering multiple price scenarios, for battery scheduling.
- This approach recognizes the variability in grid conditions and potential price spikes.